An Initial System Dynamics Model for GFS in certain region(s) of Africa

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

A Conveyor is essentially an infinite order exponential delay.  This insight illustrates how increasing the order of an exponential delay begins to approximate a conveyor.  The 10th order delay very closely aligns to the Delay 10 Conveyor.

Meu primeiro modelo...

Foxes initial population is doubled

Visão geral

O modelo mostra a conexão e o conflito da indústria entre o turismo florestal e o turismo de montanha em Derby, Tasmânia. O objetivo desta simulação é descobrir o ponto de equilíbrio para a coexistência.

Como funciona o modelo?

Ambas as indústrias podem fornecer contribuições económicas para a Tasmânia. Em primeiro lugar, a venda de madeira através da exploração madeireira geraria renda. Além disso, os gastos dos ciclistas de montanha gerariam renda. No entanto, a baixa taxa de regeneração das árvores não pode encobrir a exploração madeireira, o que influencia as belas vistas e as experiências dos ciclistas. Embora a satisfação e a expectativa dependam das opiniões e da experiência, a demanda pelo mountain bike também seria influenciada pelas visitas repetidas e pelo boca a boca.

Informações interessantes

Embora a silvicultura possa fornecer uma grande contribuição económica para a Tasmânia, o excesso de exploração madeireira vai contra a estrutura ESG, além de criar conflito com o turismo de montanha. Desde que o número de visitas de cavaleiros seja estável, o turismo pode sempre proporcionar uma maior contribuição económica em comparação com a silvicultura. Portanto, o governo deveria considerar o ponto de equilíbrio entre as duas indústrias.

A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

From the 1988 killian lecture youtube video For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For concepts and applications see IM-185226

A model situmalte the relationship between moutain bikes and logging industry in Derby, Tasmania, It explains more when the number of visitors increases or decreses. 

Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).

A model that shows how the digital advertising market is growing and how Google's share in this market, and subsequently their financial results, are influenced by investing in either three of the policy variables.

Overview 

A simple model simulates the conflict between adventure tourism (mountain biking) and logging in Derby, Tasmania. It demonstrates how these industries co-exist and in what circumstances would affect the interests of both parties. 

How does the model work? 

The demand for mountain biking came from visitors' enjoyment of nature and desire for scenery. Adventure is driven by the excitement of visitors with their experience and friends' recommendations.  

The demand for timber leads to the amount of logging, and its price per log impacts forest revenue. It brought employment opportunities to the local residents in Derby Mountain. The excessive deforestation affects landscapes and scenery, so regrowth is essential. 

Interesting Insights 

The major rebate is reducing park spaces will degrade visitors' experience of enjoyment with nature. Still, at the same time, logging brings significant business benefits to the local residents.  The environmental effect of being well-managed between mountain bikes and logging needs to be depth-explored and balanced. 

A Conveyor is essentially an infinite order exponential delay.  This insight illustrates how increasing the order of an exponential delay begins to approximate a conveyor.  The 10th order delay very closely aligns to the Delay 10 Conveyor.

This model shows the changing happened in forest industry and mountain tourism in Derby Tasmania. Logging will degrade mountain tourism while benefit the forestry industry. Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

A new archetype, The Tyranny of Small Steps (TYST) has been observed. Explained through a system dynamics perspective, the archetypical behaviour TYST is an unwanted change to a system through a series of small activities that may be independent from one another. These activities are small enough not to be detected by the ‘surveillance’ within the system, but significant enough to encroach upon the “tolerance” zone of the system and compromise the integrity of the system. TYST is an unintentional process that is experienced within the system and made possible by the lack of transparency between an overarching level and a local level where the encroachment is taking place.

Reference:

Haraldsson, H. V., Sverdrup, H. U., Belyazid, S., Holmqvist, J. and Gramstad, R. C. J. (2008), The Tyranny of Small Steps: a reoccurring behaviour in management. Syst. Res., 25: 25–43. doi: 10.1002/sres.859 

Internet of Things and Data Collection - Active and Passive Data.

A model that shows how the digital advertising market is growing and how Google's share in this market, and subsequently their financial results, are influenced by investing in either three of the policy variables.