A simulation model that shows the relationship between the mountain biking trails in derby and the the effect it has on the tourism, 
A simulation model that shows the relationship between the mountain biking trails in derby and the the effect it has on the tourism, 
  Overview  A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.     How the model works.   Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.  Wit
Overview
A model which simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike ridding) in Derby Tasmania.  Simulation borrowed from the Easter Island simulation.

How the model works.
Trees grow, we cut them down because of demand for Timber amd sell the logs.
With mountain bkie visits.  This depends on past experience and recommendations.  Past experience and recommendations depends on Scenery number of trees compared to visitor and Adventure number of trees and users.  Park capacity limits the number of users.  
Interesting insights
It seems that high logging does not deter mountain biking.  By reducing park capacity, visitor experience and numbers are improved.  A major problem is that any success with the mountain bike park leads to an explosion in visitor numbers.  Also a high price of timber is needed to balance popularity of the park. It seems also that only a narrow corridor is needed for mountain biking
From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube  video  describing system dynamics at MIT. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial  webpage  For MIT HIstory see  IM-184930  For Applications se  IM-185462
From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930 For Applications se IM-185462
 This forecasting model can be used to predict global data center electricity needs, based on understanding usage growth. Please note that the corresponding problem description, model developments, and results are discussed in the following paper:     Koot, M., & Wijnhoven, F. (2021). Usage impa
This forecasting model can be used to predict global data center electricity needs, based on understanding usage growth. Please note that the corresponding problem description, model developments, and results are discussed in the following paper:

Koot, M., & Wijnhoven, F. (2021). Usage impact on data center electricity needs: A system dynamic forecasting model. Applied Energy, 291, 116798. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116798.
10 months ago
 This forecasting model can be used to predict global data center electricity needs, based on understanding usage growth. Please note that the corresponding problem description, model developments, and results are discussed in the following paper:     Koot, M., & Wijnhoven, F. (2021). Usage impa
This forecasting model can be used to predict global data center electricity needs, based on understanding usage growth. Please note that the corresponding problem description, model developments, and results are discussed in the following paper:

Koot, M., & Wijnhoven, F. (2021). Usage impact on data center electricity needs: A system dynamic forecasting model. Applied Energy, 291, 116798. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116798.
6 months ago
Virusausbreitung von Covis-19 in Deutschland
Virusausbreitung von Covis-19 in Deutschland
 This forecasting model can be used to predict global data center electricity needs, based on understanding usage growth. Please note that the corresponding problem description, model developments, and results are discussed in the following paper:     Koot, M., & Wijnhoven, F. (2021). Usage impa
This forecasting model can be used to predict global data center electricity needs, based on understanding usage growth. Please note that the corresponding problem description, model developments, and results are discussed in the following paper:

Koot, M., & Wijnhoven, F. (2021). Usage impact on data center electricity needs: A system dynamic forecasting model. Applied Energy, 291, 116798. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116798.
10 months ago
A model that shows how the digital advertising market is growing and how Google's share in this market, and subsequently their financial results, are influenced by investing in either three of the policy variables.
A model that shows how the digital advertising market is growing and how Google's share in this market, and subsequently their financial results, are influenced by investing in either three of the policy variables.
A model that shows how the digital advertising market is growing and how Google's share in this market, and subsequently their financial results, are influenced by investing in either three of the policy variables.
A model that shows how the digital advertising market is growing and how Google's share in this market, and subsequently their financial results, are influenced by investing in either three of the policy variables.
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in  All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist  (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flo
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation.  Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function.  Repeat (A) & (B).
At first, I cloned the System Dynamics Model from the "Predator-Prey Interactions" tutorial. After I did this for populations of squirrels and mountain lions instead of moose and wolves, the model showed that the more squirrels mountain lions catch, the more the mountain lion population grows, and t
At first, I cloned the System Dynamics Model from the "Predator-Prey Interactions" tutorial. After I did this for populations of squirrels and mountain lions instead of moose and wolves, the model showed that the more squirrels mountain lions catch, the more the mountain lion population grows, and the squirrel population declines. The squirrel death rate, therefore, depends on the number of mountain lions and the mountain lion birth rate depends on the number of squirrels. 

I complicated the model by adding 15 hunters to the landscape. Now, the model starts with 150 squirrels, 100 mountain lions, and 15 hunters. This model operates under the assumption that hunters want to kill mountain lions, who presumably try to eat the farm animals that represent the hunters' livelihoods. I made the mountain lion death rate dependent on the number of hunters, and the model changed such that the squirrel population exploded and the mountain lion population approached extinction every 20 years. I based this model on a real event, which took place and is still taking place in the Sierra Nevada. Squirrel populations there apparently reached record levels when farmers seeking to protect their land killed off the vast majority of the mountain lion population there. Now, hunters in the area kill squirrels for sport because they disrupted the food chain so irrevocably.
This is a model that simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike riding) in Derby Tasmania. The simulation is borrowed from the Easter island simulation
This is a model that simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism (mountain bike riding) in Derby Tasmania. The simulation is borrowed from the Easter island simulation
 This forecasting model can be used to predict global data center electricity needs, based on understanding usage growth. Please note that the corresponding problem description, model developments, and results are discussed in the following paper:     Koot, M., & Wijnhoven, F. (2021). Usage impa
This forecasting model can be used to predict global data center electricity needs, based on understanding usage growth. Please note that the corresponding problem description, model developments, and results are discussed in the following paper:

Koot, M., & Wijnhoven, F. (2021). Usage impact on data center electricity needs: A system dynamic forecasting model. Applied Energy, 291, 116798. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116798.
10 months ago
This model simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism(mountain bike riding) in Derby Tasmania. The purpose of this model is that focus on the relationship between the timber industry and mountain bike tourism in adventure. It also reflects how well these two industries co-exi
This model simulates the competition between logging versus adventure tourism(mountain bike riding) in Derby Tasmania. The purpose of this model is that focus on the relationship between the timber industry and mountain bike tourism in adventure. It also reflects how well these two industries co-exist. 

How this model works
This model shows tree grow development. In order to maximize the profits from selling the logging, the demand for timbers will increase. 
The mountain bike visits depend on past experience and recommendations. In addition, past experience and recommendations depend on Scenery, which is determined by the number of trees and visitors and adventure number. However, park capacity limits the number of use mountain bikes, because the convince of parking is a consideration for the visitors. 
It seems like the high logging sale does not deter mountain bike activities. By reducing the parking capacity, visitor experience and number are increased. Because of the strong relationship between the mountain bike park and the explosion in visitor numbers. With the improvement in the number of visitors, the number of food and restaurants will go up as well. Because of the daily needs of the visitors. 

At first, I cloned the System Dynamics Model from the "Predator-Prey Interactions" tutorial. After I did this for populations of squirrels and mountain lions instead of moose and wolves, the model showed that the more squirrels mountain lions catch, the more the mountain lion population grows, and t
At first, I cloned the System Dynamics Model from the "Predator-Prey Interactions" tutorial. After I did this for populations of squirrels and mountain lions instead of moose and wolves, the model showed that the more squirrels mountain lions catch, the more the mountain lion population grows, and the squirrel population declines. The squirrel death rate, therefore, depends on the number of mountain lions and the mountain lion birth rate depends on the number of squirrels. 

I complicated the model by adding 15 hunters to the landscape. Now, the model starts with 150 squirrels, 100 mountain lions, and 15 hunters. This model operates under the assumption that hunters want to kill mountain lions, who presumably try to eat the farm animals that represent the hunters' livelihoods. I made the mountain lion death rate dependent on the number of hunters, and the model changed such that the squirrel population exploded and the mountain lion population approached extinction every 20 years. I based this model on a real event, which took place and is still taking place in the Sierra Nevada. Squirrel populations there apparently reached record levels when farmers seeking to protect their land killed off the vast majority of the mountain lion population there. Now, hunters in the area kill squirrels for sport because they disrupted the food chain so irrevocably.