Adapted from ​Systems approaches to public health by Alan Shiell and Penny Hawe See also Health System Efficiency IM and specific health outcome logic diagram example IM

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

This is the Concept map at IM-735  modified to reflect the learning after system dynamics modeling at IM-393, 

This is a stock flow map representation From Evans RG and Stoddardt GL  1990 paper Soc Sci Med 31(12)1347-63 , also published in a book by Evans, Barer and Marmor, Why are some people healthy and others not?: The determinants of population health See IM-425 for a simulation.

Causal Loop Diagram of the Dynamics of Emergency Department Crowding Initial View from the waiting room 

Kidney replacement therapy dynamics: causal loop diagram of the kidney dialysis and transplant model extended to Chronic Kidney Disease from MOTOHASHI and NISHI Int. J. Epidemiology1991; 20: 1032-1036

Based on diagrams in the NAP 2015 Report Improving diagnosis in health care process Compare with IM-885 Clinical judgment to provide context and and Decision Ladder IM-689 to provide decision process task detail

A simplified dynamic model, adapted from Engineering perspectives on healthcare delivery: Can we afford technological innovation in healthcare? Rouse, William B Systems Research and Behavioral Science 2009 Vol 26 (5) p573-582 abstract  Developed by Mark Heffernan. Addition of learning curve effects IM-614 to Insight 435

Version of Suicide 3 insight   with known and unknown splits

The effects of subsidies and incentives for private health insurance on the mix of public and private hospital use. The central role of adverse selection/moral hazard on private health insurance sustainability. See also updated version around 2017

Hannon and Ruth Modeling Dynamic Biological Systems p67

A work in progress model for ED daily average flows based on reported statistics by triage category with all triage categories aggregated. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

See reference in diagram notes. WIP for Environment part of primary care regional model

WIP From  zenker 2007 article PLoS Computational Biology From Inverse Problems in Mathematical Physiology to Quantitative Differential Diagnoses

Model combining system dynamics and agent based modeling. Based on Prochaska's Transtheoretical Model of Behaviour Change. See also preceding SD Version IM-574

Potential Diagnostic Error flows based on Schiff's Diagnostic Error Categories

DIabetes incidence from population inflow, with undiagnosed and diagnosed stocks

Regulation of resource allocation to service in response to service quality. A non-price-mediated resource allocation system. From Sterman JD Business Dynamics p172 Fig 5-27

The effects of subsidies and incentives for private health insurance on the mix of public and private hospital use. The central role of adverse selection/moral hazard on private health insurance sustainability. See also updated version around 2017

WIP to explain iterative modelling of linkages over space and time see also causal pathways IM

Hourly arrival pattern added to IM-663 A work in progress model for ED daily average flows based on reported statistics by triage category with all triage categories aggregated. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

See IM-8221 for Triage splits WIP

A starter on human service delivery derived from IM-621 to introduce the more complex IM-731 generic rich picture view of interactions among concerned people with needs services and resources and abilities (including learning), which can be used as a pattern for many individual health care insights.

A network view of IM-731.Combination of several other insights under the regional tag, inspired by Padgett and Powell IM-9044