A work in progress conceptual model based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals by HJ Wong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 27 April 2011 doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164. Linked concepts with annotated definitions.

WIP Stock Flow representation of Panarchy Adaptive Cycles

A RIch Picture unfolding representation of ED overcrowding based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals by HJWong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 27 April 2011 doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164. 

Coping but not coping in health and social care: masking the reality of running organisations beyond safe design capacity. From Eric Wolstenholme Syst. Dyn. Rev. 23, 371–389, (2007) abstract See IM-1008 for a stock flow version. Click the Start Story feature at the bottom left.

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

Forcings and feedbacks based on Tom Fiddaman, James Hansen and other feedback and cycle diagrams

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

FBE WIP

Modified from Mark Paich et al. 's book: Pharmaceutical product strategy. Fig 4.7 p 69. It formed the basis of a hypertension intervention discussion Aug-Sept 2010

This models the progressive decline of the ability for self-reliance and the growing dependence on outside help. ​Z508 p39-42 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel. Strong outside help causes a collapse of self-help capacity. Weak outside help produces a stable combination of wellbeing and self-help capacity.

Australian Health Care Funding Flows, adapted from the National Hospitals and Health Reform Commission Report. Expanded in IM-78418

Hypertension Generic Patient Flow Causal Loop Diagram version of Insight 305

Benefits and context described in Atkinson S et al (2000) Going down to the local: incorporating social organisation and political culture into assessments of decentralised health care Social Science & Medicine 51(4) 619-636 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-9536(00)00005-8 in Gilson L, ed. (2012). Health Policy and Systems Research: A Methodology Reader Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, World Health Organization p166-183

Aim: To gain insight into what map and model representations in applied systems methods in IM-1267 can assist identifying and explaining the improvement strategies (leverage points) described by Donella Meadows Places to Intervene Article. The context is social learning for collective action to improve real world events. Information Sources are adapted from IM-920