A simple generic rich picture view of interactions among concerned people with needs services and resources and abilities (including learning), which can be used as a pattern for many individual health care insights.

Benefits and context described in Atkinson S et al (2000) Going down to the local: incorporating social organisation and political culture into assessments of decentralised health care Social Science & Medicine 51(4) 619-636 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-9536(00)00005-8 in Gilson L, ed. (2012). Health Policy and Systems Research: A Methodology Reader Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, World Health Organization p166-183

IPCC Extreme weather events combined context diagrams  FBE WIP

A work in progress conceptual model based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals by HJ Wong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 27 April 2011 doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164. Linked concepts with annotated definitions.

Adapted from ​Systems approaches to public health by Alan Shiell and Penny Hawe See also Health System Efficiency IM and specific health outcome logic diagram example IM

WIP Map as a basis for a future simulation that extends IM-319 to include KPIs

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

WIP ideas for group model building representation See later Australian Version Hybrid  Insight

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

From MIT ESD work (de Weck Ilities ) esp on Survivability (Medecki) http://bit.ly/HVsceb and Unarticulated Value (Ross) 2006 PhD pdf

WIP Reviewing past work on a dynamic computational version of clinical reasoning and judgment

From Peter Lacey's Whole Systems Partnership UK NHS ithink model

Clone of IM-91683 from jacqui and vincy Summary of paper map produced by participants at the compelling case for prevention workshop 6 june 2017. 

A model of an infectious disease and control

A WIP Limited SD model of the core of IM-731 based on Mark Heffernan's interpretation

Jack Homer's model via ithink and Mark Heffernan.  From Jack's  paper Worker burnout: a dynamic model with implications  for prevention and control System Dynamics Review 1985 1(1)42-62. See IM-641 for the Causal loop diagram

This simple high level model shows the basic feedback balancing loop for health services. There are many other loops and component interactions at multiple scales that add to the complexity See areas of expenditure IM for some component splits and hospital value IM for some service linkages

A structure used in childhood obesity intervention mechanisms, currently a map WIP which can be enhanced into a simulation

A simple SD model ​From alonge2017 health policy and planning article

Unfolding linked concepts story summary of C A Soper's 2018 Book : Human mismatch between the emotional brain and the thinking brain generated evolutionary mechanisms to avoid suicide; reframed as perceptual control theory.

From p592 Doyle F et al.(2007) Journal of Process Control 17 571-594

abstract

Model of Factors Affecting Ebola

WIP unfolding for trainee modeller AD to provide context and direction for 2018 CCP work and beyond. See also Early Childhood intervention IM-94482

Based on G.P. Cimellaro et al. Framework for analytical quantification of disaster resilience Engineering Structures 32 (2010) 3639–3649 paper