WIP Stock Flow representation of Panarchy Adaptive Cycles

IPCC Extreme weather events combined context diagrams  FBE WIP

Benefits and context described in Atkinson S et al (2000) Going down to the local: incorporating social organisation and political culture into assessments of decentralised health care Social Science & Medicine 51(4) 619-636 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-9536(00)00005-8 in Gilson L, ed. (2012). Health Policy and Systems Research: A Methodology Reader Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research, World Health Organization p166-183

From MIT ESD work (de Weck Ilities ) esp on Survivability (Medecki) http://bit.ly/HVsceb and Unarticulated Value (Ross) 2006 PhD pdf

A RIch Picture unfolding representation of ED overcrowding based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals by HJWong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 27 April 2011 doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164. 

Broad and detailed Linked concept version of Tanner's Clinical Judgment Model, with the addition of clinical reasoning cycle concepts from T Levett-Jones et al Nurse Education Today 30 (2010) 515-520 and Kathie Lasater (2007) Clinical Judgment Development: Using Simulation to Create an Assessment Rubric. Journal of Nursing Education 46(11)p 496-503

Love affairs and Differential equations. From Michael J Radzicki (1993) Dyadic processes,tempestuous relationships, and system dynamics Syst. Dyn. Rev. 9 (1) :79-94 

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

Based on Mangone 2018 Book on revisiting Sorokin's work (Dynamic sociology). See also Peter Turchin

Adapted from Fig.3, from Ana V Diez Roux (2011) Complex Systems Thinking May Help Us Transcend Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research Am J Public Health 2011;101 1627-1634  http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/9/1627?etoc