Overview
This model which simulates the competition of Logging with Mountain Tourism in Derby, Tasmania. This main reason of this simulation is to find if logging will affect the mountain tourism and by any chance they can co-exist.
How the model works.
Both Timber harvesting and mountain tourism can bring the economic contribution to Tasmania. In the Logging industry, it helps increase the need of employment and at the same time logging generate the profit through selling those timbers. In the Mountain Tourism industry, it can get the revenue through couple of ways which include accommodation (approximately 3 days find in paper), Restaurant and parking fee. However, the low growth rate of the trees is not keeping up with the rate of logging, if the trees getting less in Derby mountain, it will affect the sights and the riding experience for tourists, which will affect the satisfaction and expectation as it depends on the sights and experience. The satisfaction and expectation will influence the number of visitors, if they satisfied, they can come again or tell others about the great experience, if not, more and more people will not come again.
Interesting insightsIt seems like logging has no significant negative effect to the mountain tourism, compare the forestry income with the tourism income, tourism income gradually higher than the forestry income at last, which means tourism is in a very important position, as long as the visitors are stable, tourism industry can provide greater economic contribution, stakeholders and governments can find the balance by maintain the status or better slightly reduce logging in order to make them co-exist.
Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Internet of Things and Data Collection - Active and Passive Data under Conditions of Regulation.
Active and Passive Internet of Things - Regulated
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Sterman Model (2002)
From Jay Forrester 1988 killian lectures youtube video describing system dynamics at MIT. For Concepts See IM-185226. For more detailed biography See Jay Forrester memorial webpage For MIT HIstory see IM-184930
Clone of System Dynamics Applications
A new archetype, The Tyranny of Small Steps (TYST) has been observed. Explained through a system dynamics perspective, the archetypical behaviour TYST is an unwanted change to a system through a series of small activities that may be independent from one another. These activities are small enough not to be detected by the ‘surveillance’ within the system, but significant enough to encroach upon the “tolerance” zone of the system and compromise the integrity of the system. TYST is an unintentional process that is experienced within the system and made possible by the lack of transparency between an overarching level and a local level where the encroachment is taking place.
Reference:
Haraldsson, H. V., Sverdrup, H. U., Belyazid, S., Holmqvist, J. and Gramstad, R. C. J. (2008), The Tyranny of Small Steps: a reoccurring behaviour in management. Syst. Res., 25: 25–43. doi: 10.1002/sres.859
Clone of The Tyranny of small steps archetype (agent based)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Ciclo 1 extra repair consturction errors rework
Clone of Clone of Construction Rework SD
Evolution of Covid-19 in Brazil:
A System Dynamics Approach
Villela, Paulo (2020)
paulo.villela@engenharia.ufjf.br
This model is based on Crokidakis, Nuno. (2020). Data analysis and modeling of the evolution of COVID-19 in Brazil. For more details see full paper here.
Evolução da Covid-19 no Brasil
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
This is a system dynamic model to
describe relationship between local logging industry and biking tourism in
Tasmanian Derby Mountain.
In the dynamic model, the left-hand side shows how Derby
get income from local biking tourism. The biking visitors number are influenced
by scenery evaluation which depend on local size of forest and influenced government policy support when Biking Tourism income
is over 1000 unit. Biking visitors with good recommendation will also back to
Mountain Derby and bring income for local in twice or more times. In the right-hand side, we found the income of
logging industry was influenced by local logging growth rate and government
policy if local Biking Tourism income is over 1000 unit. The increase of
logging industry will also increase local employment which will influence employee
cost. This factor will also affect total logging income in Derby Mountain.
The simulation results show, with governments support the
Biking tourism will increase sharply in the first few years and finally instead
local logging industry, at same time bring good environment and save local
forest under local increase logging industry. The recommendation graph shows
that, the number of good recommendation & bad recommendation for Derby
Mountain biking tourism will also increase in high speed in front of few years
with data fluctuation but finally maintain in a stable line. Last simulation
graph shows that how policy factor influences logging and biking industry. The Government
has strong support in local tourism, however, as number of tourists increase,
the positive impact from government support will continue decrease. On the contrary,
the government support influence will also decease to local logging industry when
logging been instead by tourism.
Simulation Of Derby Mountain Bikes Versus logging
Ciclo 1 extra repair consturction errors rework
Clone of Construction Rework SD
Clone of Clone of Investigation of Predator/Prey Modal 2
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
Based on model discussed by John D. Sterman (p 508) in All models are wrong: reflections on becoming a systems scientist (2002). Task: (A) Sketch what you think the resultant graph will be (see directions for drawing in model). (B) Then Run Simulation. Optional Extension: Replace Graph In/Out Flow connection with a connection from Trig. function. Repeat (A) & (B).
Clone of Sterman Model (2002)
A pest known as a grape-leaf hopper can cause considerable losses in vineyards. Periodically it was found that a natural parasite, anagrus epos, drastically reduced the size of the hopper population. This, in turn, led to a reduction in food (hoppers) available to the parasite and the parasite population declined until the hopper population increased again. This cycle would repeat.It was found that the parasite, anagrus epos, also feeds on a non-pest leaf hopper which feeds on blackberries. By planting small patches of wild blackberries in the vineyards, the growers were able to maintain a stable parasite population that was large enough to control population explosions of both leaf hoppers.
Grape-leaf Hopper system
