Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause,
in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most
fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit)
since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that an already very weak and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with
extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the
industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American
economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a
second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global
Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but
emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the
atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight
back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these
aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as
much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period
time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the
furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting
dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture. As events unfold in the next few months, we may discover that it is too late to act, that our reign on this planet has, indeed, come to an abrupt end?
Clone of Covid 19 - irreversible and catastrophic consequences
This is a simple intervention project/programme planning tool aimed primarily at public health practitioners who want to understand potential impact.
Clone of Intervention Planning Tool
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts.
This is the fourth and final developmental component of Module 2. The population progression through health states is complete.
LV _Stage 4 CVD Health State Model
Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator: for the older (70+ years) population of West Dorset, UK using the UKCP09 SRES A1B Emission Scenario.
Clone of Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator
An overview of this quantitative systems science method based on Kurt Kreuger's workshops for public health
System dynamics
A launchpad overview of computational simulation methods based on Kurt Kreuger's systems science workshops
Quantitative Systems Science Methods
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
Clone of Age-Sex Pop Model
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
Clone of Age-Sex Pop Model
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
Clone of Age-Sex Pop Model
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
Clone of Age-Sex Pop Model
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
Clone of Stage 9 CVD Prevention Model - Chris Skelly
Clone of 5-yr Age Grp Pop Model
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
Clone of Basic CVD Prevention Model
This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts
CVD Prevention Model
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
Clone of Age-Sex Pop Model
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
vector of Age-Sex Pop Model
An overview of hybrid computational simulation methods based on Kurt Kreuger's workshops
Hybrid simulation models
Clone of 5-yr Age Grp Pop Model
This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.
Clone of 5-yr Age Grp Pop Model
Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator: for the older (70+ years) population of West Dorset, UK using the UKCP09 SRES A1B Emission Scenario.
Eva's Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator
Clone of 5-yr Age Grp Pop Model
Increasing demand for unplanned hospital services can be met either by increasing the capacity of hospitals or investing in prevention services, either by Public Health or Primary Care. Historically, justifying this investment has been difficult, with funding discussions focusing on how much can money the prevention will save in secondary care, and then the difficulty of releasing that money. However, switching the narrative to one based upon improving health outcomes, and working within the existing capacity of secondary care rather than building new hospitals as the population grows may provide more positive in releasing cash for prevention activity.
Model to quantify the benefit of providing Public Health and Primary Care interventions to reduce the risk of unplanned hospital attendances.
Health Prevention
This is a simple intervention project/programme planning tool aimed primarily at public health practitioners who want to understand potential impact.
Clone of Intervention Planning Tool
Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator: for the older (70+ years) population of West Dorset, UK using the UKCP09 SRES A1B Emission Scenario.
Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator
