Health Care | Insight Maker

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization Zahra Mohaghegh, Reza Kazemi, Ali Mosleh Reliability Engineering and System Safety (2009) 94 5 p1000–1018 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095183200800269X. More detailed part of Insight 1074

Clone of Performance shaping factors

PRASHANT K TIWARI

Based on Psychological Medicine Dec 2015 article Depression as a systemic syndrome: mapping the feedback loops of major depressive disorder by A. K. Wittenborn, H. Rahmandad, J. Rick and N. Hosseinichimeh, mentioned here

Clone of Depression Dynamics

Brian J. Gross

Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Clone of Clone of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

Olga Kolchyna

This model shows the dynamics of use of a new medical technology based on its scope of use and perceived relative benefit. The technology needs cumulative usage to fix its glitches, and the benefits will be diluted as the scope of use widens.

Clone of Diffusion of Medical Technology

Norbert Kolos

Simplified Rich picture version of Tanner's Clinical Judgment Model, with the addition of clinical reasoning cycle concepts from T Levett-Jones et al Nurse Education Today 30 (2010) 515-520

Thinking like a nurse rich pic after simulation

Geoff McDonnell

Dynamic system underlying project life cycles From Roberts Edward B The Dynamics of Research and Development p5 Harper & Row NY 1964

Clone of The dynamics of R&D

Samreen mukhtar

Model for Rehab 2139 Board Game by Mark Heffernan and Lynette Lee

Rehab Ward Flows

Geoff McDonnell

From JAMIA 2011 (10) 738- 748. Relevant to DLL 616 and PKC 1004

Clone of Clinical Process Workflow

G Patterson

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

Clone of Critical Systems Thinking

Andy

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Clone of Implementing Chronic Care Management

REVE MOLONEY

DIabetes incidence inflow, Prevalence stock and deaths outflow

Clone of Diabetes Progression 1 stock

Mounir ATTIEH

Inspiration for the model: The Last of Us, a video game for PlayStation 4.

In this example, we used a system dynamics model to predict a spread of a dangerous infection called Cordyceps Brain Infection, which is immune to any type of antibiotics. In the beginning, the virus was carried by only one person (Infected), which inhaled spores from a plant called cordyceps fungus.

The Infected show their first symptoms after two days, as the infection attacks higher brain functions, making the infected highly aggressive and incapable of reason or rational thoughts.

The infection can be transmitted via bodily fluids; such as saliva, or by inhaling spores from the afore mentioned plant.

It is believed that the infection can last up to 10 years, before the host dies.

Parameters such as Infectivity, Contact Rate and Immunization Rate can be adjusted, but as we are dealing with a highly infectious disease, the starting values are 0.97 (infectivity - in 97% of the cases, the infection will spread to another host); 5 (each infected attacks 5 susceptible person per day); and 0.0001 (only 1 infected per 10,000 infected gets the treatment, as the vaccine can be afforded only by the richest people on the Earth).

Simulation time is set to 50 years. The purpose of this model is to simulate what kind of an effect a deadly infection would have on World's population, if the medicine could not find a cure, or if the cure would be available only for the richest people on the Earth.

The simulation result shows that the Earth's population has been decimated with the disease, and that there are only 7,5 million people left on Earth.

Infectious Disease Model

Emir Guso

A simple glucose regulation causal loop diagram taken from Richard O. Foster, 1970: The Dynamics of blood sugar regulation, MSc thesis, MIT Dept of Electrical Engineering, available on the MIT System Dynamics Group Literature Collection and in the MIT Electronic Libraries. See IM-587 for Addition of Glucagon

Clone of Glucose regulation CLD 1

Yun Wang

From Werner Ulrich's JORS Articles Operational research and critical systems thinking – an integrated perspective. Part 1: OR as applied systems thinking. Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication (14 December 2011). and Part 2 :OR as argumentative practice.

Clone of Critical Systems Thinking

Pagandai V Pannir Selvam

Patients on Treatment represented as people in a swimming pool. Fast Switchers change costumes. Lapsed Users sit by the pool. Misdiagnosed people are in the wrong pool. Extended from IM-305

Patient Care Process Swimming Pool Metaphor

Geoff McDonnell

感染係数: ウイルスの感染しやすさ

致死係数: 重症患者の死にやすさ

初期潜伏感染者: 初めの潜伏感染者数

政策閾値: 緊急事態宣言を出す判断を行う陽性判定数

政策日数: 政策の長さ

政策病床数: 政策によって追加されるホテル病床数

政策外出率: 政策期間の外出率

バグ:

病床使用率が1を超える

陽性判定数が発症者の係数倍

政策による効果の粒度が粗い

メディア効果、病床数効果あり感染モデル

ShotaroOkamoto

This is a systems model that allows groups of professionals to discuss 'prevention at scale' opportunities and the implications of numbers 'needed to treat' in any local population. In terms of public health interventions this equates to reach, compliance and efficacy, which are usually lower than one might suspect.

Diabetes Prevention Opportunities

Chris Skelly

4

WIP example of Services oriented multiscale computable narrative synthesis focussed on Coping carefully with diabetes

Diabetes Care

Geoff McDonnell

An overview of Thomas A Goudge's Book on The Thought of CS Peirce Dover NY 1950 and Thomas Knight's Book Charles Peirce NY 1965. See also causality insight

The Thought of CS Peirce

Geoff McDonnell

5 months ago

WIP Stock Flow representation of Panarchy Adaptive Cycles

Clone of Adaptive Cycles Stock Flow

JP Burklow

Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization article. For more detail of the blue area see performance shaping factors Insight

Socio Technical Risk Assessment

Geoff McDonnell

4

A model of an infectious disease and control

Clone of Disease Dynamics (Agent Based Modeling)

Dav Fem

From Rudolph JW Morrison JB and Carroll JS (2009) The Dynamics of Action-Oriented Problem Solving: Linking Interpretation and Choice. Academy of Management Review 34 (4) p733-756 Available online . This paper won the Forrester Award for 2012 and the presentation talk video is available. The presentation paper abstract is available in System Dynamics Review 2013 here

Clone of Action-Oriented Problem Solving Dynamics

paul

Simplified version of IM-852 Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers See Stock Flow Map Insight 810

Clone of ESA Dosing in Renal Anemia Simple Simulation

David Cairns

Health Care Models