Finance | Insight Maker

Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory from Michael Joffe Fig. 3.4 p54 Ch3 Feedback Economics Book with Private Credit Inflation boom added to the bust cycles

Irving Fisher's Debt Deflation Theory

Geoff McDonnell

Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt

Where

• F(t) is the probability of failure

• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)

• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime,
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life

If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life

The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.

Wearout

The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period.

BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK

Guy Lakeman

7

A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing education problems related to trying to increase workshop engagement.

Inherent in the diagram is a representation of two well-known system dynamics archetypes:

Shifting the Burden, represented in the interplay between the B1, B2, and R3 loops, and
Limits to Success, represented in the interplay between the B1 and R5 loops.

Clone of Variables Influencing Business Problems Related to SAMS

wayne hugo

Extremely basic stock-flow diagram of compound interest with table and graph output in interest and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal can all be modified in Dutch.

Stock-Flow diagram of savings account - compound interest

Henny van Dongen

Practicing modelling by building a personal financial model.

financial_simulation_practice

Phillip Balding

In this model, we look at "human resource" supply chains and how quickly and unpredictably an organization can enter long periods of being either overstaffed or understaffed.

Project Management: Human Resources

Karan Khosla

7

A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing business problems related to the transitioning of the Social Assistance Management System (SAMS) from initial production deployment to steady state.

Inherent in the diagram is a representation of two well-known system dynamics archetypes:

Shifting the Burden, represented in the interplay between the B1, B2, and R3 loops, and
Limits to Success, represented in the interplay between the B1 and R5 loops.

Variables Influencing Business Problems Related to SAMS (+/-)

Franz Weismann

4

First test model of Insight Maker based on YouTube video.

Test - Bank Interest

Niels Johnson-Laird

WIP replication of Khalid Saeed's draft paper presented by the Economics chapter of the SD Society in Sept 2019 youtube video

Unlinking public finance and taxation in fiat currency

Geoff McDonnell

Rich Diagram For Bank Business Intelligent System

Woubit

We are modeling future cash flows in the system consisting of three interacting parties, one of which secures deals between the two others which do not trust each other.

factoring platform on blockchain

Olga Konoval

9

Business Model

Cristian Visintin

Demonstrate that the same diagram is appropriate whether the interest rate is positive or negative.

Video

@LinkedIn, Twitter, YouTube

Negative Interest

Gene Bellinger

20170308 My money

卞宗馨

A simple budget planning system. What additional complexities can you add?

ISD Savings Plan

Kevin Collins

126

OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

OVERSHOOT GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman

7

Modelagem Soft sobre o Conflito de Agência e Governança no Brasil. Atividade proposta em Teoria Geral dos Sistemas, ministrada pelo Prof. Antonio Carlos Zambon.

Integrantes:

- Edson da Costa Vitor Junior, 170086

- Gustavo Batistic Ribeiro, 174028

- Huanna Raquel do Nascimento, 174720

- Karen E. M. Rodrigues, 177493

- Leticia O. C. Tavares, 182047

- Matheus Baroni, 184378

Conflito de Agência e Governança no Brasil

Matheus Baroni

Given historic cash flows, we try to predict the future assuming the main relations between predictors are kept constant

MicroFinance Cashflows prediction

Olga Konoval

Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka

Finance a spokojenost školáka

Tomáš Novák

Czech startUp company model

Zuzana Kotásková

Simulation compares Bitcoin cloud mining opportunity (hashflare.io) to HODL.

The model does not calculate with mining difficulty, pool's efficiency and changes in fees. Using monthly cloud fees as of the end of November 2017.

Used https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator for mining calculations.

HODL vs. cloud mining

Andrej Soucek

4

Stock-flow consistent model with private debt provided by the financial sector. Growth in model is predicated on Business sector growth in the wage bill which is funded by internal finance if available, while the remainder is financed by credit, i.e., external finance (an exogenous variable in the model). Business equity is the difference of the Business's current account and business debt (i.e., capital account). Firms are passive in this model--they do not save and pass all revenue, and external financing, to households minus repayments on debt--which is an exogenous variable in the model.

model-PD