Overview This model is a working simulation of the competition between the mountain biking tourism industry versus the forestry logging within Derby Tasmania.
How the model works
The left side of the model highlights the mountain bike flow beginning with demand for the forest that leads to increased visitors using the forest of mountain biking. Accompanying variables effect the tourism income that flows from use of the bike trails. On the right side, the forest flow begins with tree growth then a demand for timber leading to the logging production. The sales from the logging then lead to the forestry income. The model works by identifying how the different variables interact with both mountain biking and logging. As illustrated there are variables that have a shared effect such as scenery and adventure and entertainment.
Variables The variables are essential in understanding what drives the flow within the model. For example mountain biking demand is dependent on positive word mouth which in turn is dependent on scenery. This is an important factor as logging has a negative impact on how the scenery changes as logging deteriorates the landscape and therefore effects positive word of mouth. By establishing variables and their relationships with each other, the model highlights exactly how mountain biking and forestry logging effect each other and the income it supports.
Interesting Insights The model suggests that though there is some impact from logging, tourism still prospers in spite of negative impacts to the scenery with tourism increasing substantially over forestry income. There is also a point at which the visitor population increases exponentially at which most other variables including adventure and entertainment also increase in result. The model suggests that it may be possible for logging and mountain biking to happen simultaneously without negatively impacting on the tourism income.
Clone of Simulation of Derby Mountain biking versus logging
The statement that there can be no economic activity
without energy and that fossil fuels are
finite contrasts with the fact that money is not finite and can be created by governments
via their central banks at zero marginal cost whenever needed.
An important fact about COAL, GAS and OIL (especially when produced via fracking) is that their net energy ratios are falling rapidly.
In other words the energy needed to extract a given quantity of fossil fuels is
constantly increasing. The falling ratio 'EROI' (Energy Return on Energy Invested ) provides
yet another warning that we can no longer rely on fossil fuels to power our
economies. In 1940 it took the energy of only one barrel of oil to extract 100. Today the energy of 1 barrel of oil will yield only 15. We cannot wait until the ratio falls to 1/1 before we invest seriously in alternative sources of energy, because by then industrial society as we know it doday will have ceased to exist. An EROI of 1:1 means that it takes the energy of one barrel of oil to extract one barrel of oil - oil production would simply stop!
A model situmalte the relationship between moutain bikes and logging industry in Derby, Tasmania, It explains more when the number of visitors increases or decreses.
How the model works
The left side shows when the number of travellers increase, the income from travellers rental of bike and stay of hotel increase simultaneously. However, there is a capacity for both parking lots and hotel venues, which means that the top ability of hospitality of Derby. The right side shows the logging industry of Derby and income from logging. It has a impact on how travellers would value Derby moutain.
Insights
As the number of travellers increase, it increases the total income of Derby, and in return, the local government will re-revest in Derby Moutain and will also maintain the forrestry logging industry.
Clone of Simulation of Derby Moutain Bikes Versus Biking
This is a dynamic model that shows the correlation between the
health-related policies implemented by the Government in response to COVID-19 outbreak
in Burnie, Tasmania, and the policies’ impact on the Economic activity of the
area.
ASSUMPTIONS
The increase in the number of COVID-19 cases is directly
proportional to the increase in the Government policies in the infected region.
The Government policies negatively impact the economy of Burnie, Tasmania.
INTERESTING INSIGHTS
1. When the borders are closed by the government, the economy
is severely affected by the decrease of revenue generated by the Civil aviation/Migration
rate. As the number of COVID-19 cases increase, the number of people allowed to
enter Australian borders will also decrease by the government.
2. The Economic activity sharply increases and stays in uniformity.
3. The death rate drastically decreased as we increased test rate by 90%.
Clone of COVID-19 Outbreak in Burnie Tasmania (Rajaa Sajjad, 538837)
Causal Loop Diagram unfolding based on my Feb2026 Gemini interaction using Gene Bellinger's AI prompts Revisited Mar2026 with Fadhel Kaboub's Club of Rome Deep Dive Paper
Causal loop structure of Steve Keen's video Why
'Balancing The Budget' Will Actually Crash The Economy generated by my Gemini interaction Feb2026 using Gene Bellinger's AI prompts
