For testing only

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

The purpose of this deer management model is to explore the capacity of wildlife management actions to help us adapt to the effects of climate change.

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.

The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances,  and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/

simulation oc carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

Narrative influence model sketching influence links in energy-economy-emissions

Social movements have a major role to play in forcing politicians to act on climate change. This opinion has been clearly expressed by Pope Francis in his encyclical on climate change and, amongst others, also by Naomi Klein in her book 'This changes Everything'. The CLD suggests the need to strengthen the reinforcing loops R1 and R2 representing the activities of  environmental movements and also to disrupt the reinforcing loop R3 representing climate change  deniers. The most effective way in my opinion  to strengthen R1 and R2 is to weaken R3. This could be done by countering false arguments by pointing out on all occasions that the debate on climate change is over: climate scientists, by an overwhelming consensus, have established that anthropogenic global warming is a scientific fact. It could also be done by educating the public. The urgency of the situation suggests that the most effective way of doing this could be by closing negative feedback loops, for example, by linking extreme weather events, supported by graphic images, to global warming. Global warming can also be linked to inequality, poverty, larger forest fires,  coral reef bleaching, etc. The Pope has started the work by establishing these links in his encyclical. Of course, these are merely suggestions. Looking at the CLD carefully might well reveal other effective points of intervention

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, which includes first order approximations of its radiation balance (black bodies), including two radiation modulating effects i.e. albedo and green house and two heat storages (ocean and atmosphere). It is a lumped model which does not consider spatial variations and resulting mass transports - thus no heat exchange between e.g. equatorial and polar regions...
As a consequence all values are surface specific i.e. per square meter. E.g. the energy balance is the  balance in  W/m² and the heat reservoirs are water and air columns with a cross section of 1 m²...

Market-led Sustainability is  a 'Fix-that-Fails' as is illustraited in this graph in a very simplified manner. Likely market-led initiatives would be investment in renewables, electric cars and the development of long-term battery storage as a back-up to renewable energy adn other initiatives. However, all of these make demands on the environmemt, requiring  resources, fossil fuels (solar cannot beused to built  solar) and will be accompanied by greenhouse gas emission. In the medium and long term  they will undermine the market-driven goal,  increasing  environmental and economic costs.  The whole enterprise will eventually fail.

If all Americans believed that extreme weather events, droughts and wildfires are primarily caused by climate change they would soon react and demand immediate action from their political leaders. It is likely that this will happen fairly soon because of the dynamic hidden in the phrase 'Climate Change'. Wolfgang von Goethe the famous German poet and scientist said  ''we only see what we know". Cognitive psychology largely agrees and says that we only understand what we see - and give importance to it -  if we have a schema  (mental model) for what we are looking at.  As the terms 'Climate Change' become more widely used people will try to understand what they mean and start to construct schemas. As a result of this process they will soon  see  extreme weather events and wild fire in a different light as the occur again and again - after all, climate scientists told us that  their numbers and severity would  increase as a result of climate change. This simple CLD tries to illustrate this dynamic. It suggests that if you want to speed up this process, a good strategy would be to point out at every occasion possible that an increase of extreme weather events and droughts is precisely what climate scientists predicted!

A model of a typical Australian sheep farm, where wool is the primary product, with first-cross fat lambs a secondary product.

A model of the potential impact on the elderly population (75+ years) from heat stress, which is increased by climate change in the UK.

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.

Various factors affecting South East Queensland's koala population. 

The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances,  and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, based on first order approximations of its (black body) radiation balance.

Simple stock model illustrating the relationship between increasing temperature and amount of rainforest loss per year

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

People, generally, do not seem to be conscious of, or care about, the enormous dangers of climate change and even the possibility of a devastating war in the Korean peninsula that could turn nuclear. They carry on with their routine and banal conversations as if that was all that mattered. In the 60s there were peace demonstration, there was more awareness and public engagement in the face of the thread of nuclear war. Could the pressures and demands of modern capitalism, now no longer tamed by a competing communist system that could potentially appear to be more attractive, be a causal factor? People caught up in the turmoil of a positive feedback loop rarely perceive reality beyond it. This simple CLD tries to illustrate the dynamic and feedback loops that could be responsible for this strange apathy and how our present day economic system could be blinding us to imminent danger.