There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

Capitalism is in crisis and climate change disruption is now beginning to hit the bottom line. Insurance companies know this well. According to a report by the Bank of England, insured losses have risen from $10 000 million in 1985 to $50 000 million in 2015. Climate change cannot be reversed, and extreme weather events  will undoubtedly get worse in the future strengthening the disruptive effects shown in the CLD.  Another dynamic is that companies will continue to automate and, as The Economic Policy Institute has shown, fail to reflect  productivity gains in workers' salaries. The result, stagnating salaries is disastrous for demand, given that capitalism needs endlessly rising demand and consumption. A further serious problem is that as climate change gets worse there will be increasing demands for companies to assume their responsibility and bear the costs of negative externalities.  The CLD shows these factors which are likely to lead to the collapse of the system: when capitalism can no longer generate 'capital' it has stopped to serves any useful purpose. 

A model of the potential impact on the elderly population (75+ years) from heat stress, which is increased by climate change in the UK.

There is now substantial evidence that three unstoppable reinforcing feedback systems that can only accelerate global warming have been triggered in the Arctic. R2 illustrates a process whereby frozen methane hydrate,  which exists in enormous quantities on the seabed of the shallow Arctic Ocean shelf, is breaking up as the ocean warms. This leads to methane gas, a greenhouse gas about 20 times more powerful than C02, bubbling up to the surface. R1 shows that as the ice cover of the ocean melts and shrinks, less sunlight is reflected back into space and more is absorbed by  the ocean, warming it as a consequence. The warmer ocean water and warmer air temperature will then melt more ice, but it will also break up more methane hydrates.   R3 describes a similar process where melting permafrost releases methane into the atmosphere, making the situation even worse. These processes are multiplicative, they reinforce each other.  Below are links to three articles that provide  evidence that this is going on now. Systems thinking tells us about reinforcing feedback loops and the associated exponential growth. Taking this and the evidence provided by the articles into account the conclusion clearly points to increasing and accelerated global warming. The recent Paris agreement on global warming may have come too late!

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/vast-methane-plumes-seen-in-arctic-ocean-as-sea-ice-retreats-6276278.html

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23205-major-methane-release-is-almost-inevitable/

If all Americans believed that extreme weather events, droughts and wildfires are primarily caused by climate change they would soon react and demand immediate action from their political leaders. It is likely that this will happen fairly soon because of the dynamic hidden in the phrase 'Climate Change'. Wolfgang von Goethe the famous German poet and scientist said  ''we only see what we know". Cognitive psychology largely agrees and says that we only understand what we see - and give importance to it -  if we have a schema  (mental model) for what we are looking at.  As the terms 'Climate Change' become more widely used people will try to understand what they mean and start to construct schemas. As a result of this process they will soon  see  extreme weather events and wild fire in a different light as the occur again and again - after all, climate scientists told us that  their numbers and severity would  increase as a result of climate change. This simple CLD tries to illustrate this dynamic. It suggests that if you want to speed up this process, a good strategy would be to point out at every occasion possible that an increase of extreme weather events and droughts is precisely what climate scientists predicted!

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.

A model of a typical Australian sheep farm, where wool is the primary product, with first-cross fat lambs a secondary product.

The concept of 'CLOSING A FEEDBACK LOOP'  means that a loop is closed to affect the person or agents that originally are  responsible for an action so that they plainly feel its effects. This almost inevitable leads to corrective action. One of the reasons why climate change does not  arouse passion and action is that it is largely invisible and most people are not aware of it, although extreme weather events are beginning to change this somewhat. The schematic representation shows how systems thinking might help to draw attention to such situations by graphically connecting the dots to promote understand and hopefully action when people realize that there is a price to be paid for inaction.  Please note, however, that the loop does not describe dynamic behaviour in the normal system dynamics sense. 

Narrative influence model sketching influence links in energy-economy-emissions

Estresse Térmico

For testing only

A very simple thermodynamic model of a planet, which includes first order approximations of its radiation balance (black bodies), including two radiation modulating effects i.e. albedo and green house and two heat storages (ocean and atmosphere). It is a lumped model which does not consider spatial variations and resulting mass transports - thus no heat exchange between e.g. equatorial and polar regions...
As a consequence all values are surface specific i.e. per square meter. E.g. the energy balance is the  balance in  W/m² and the heat reservoirs are water and air columns with a cross section of 1 m²...

DRAFT conceptual model of climate change connections in Yamuna river project.