The city of Bergen has a goal of becoming fossil-free in 2030. How do we get there? Some weeks ago, local experts from different domains came together and developed a causal loop diagram (CLD). This will form the skeleton for the modelling hackathon.
Use a savings account model to investigate the manner in which inflows and outflows govern the quantity of a stock. Extend the structure to create and investigate the relationships of a growth producing reinforcing loop.
Analysis has served us well in developing the understanding of things, at least to a point. Though analysis will not allow us to answer the why questions about things. For that we need synthesis. One might consider analysis and synthesis two sides of a coin that one shouldn't attempt to separate.
We are embedded in a larger system and unless we realize it an act accordingly we are likely to be the victim of it. From Introduction to System Dynamics: Overview by John Sterman
The model starts in 1900. In the year 2000 you get the chance to set a new emission target and nominal time to reach it. Your aim is to have atmospheric CO2 stabilize at about 400 ppmv in 2100. From Sterman, John D. (2008) Risk Communication on Climate: Mental Models and Mass Balance. Science 322 (24 October): 532-533.
This model was started at the STIA+ Conference in Seattle on April 18th by Rebecca Niles of Leverage Networks for discussion at her Open Space session. The intent is to continue that open space here in a virtual context.
Based on 1990 SDR Article. Control systems act to make their own input match internal standards or reference signals. Competent control systems create illusions of stimulus response causality. Stimulus-response theory can approximate the relationship between disturbance and action, but it can't predict the consequences of behavior. These consequences are maintained despite disturbances.
From Jay Forrester 1971 book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3Limits to Growth Model. Adapted by Geoff McDonnell from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.org.
The problem with microworlds is that too often people simply learn to play the game and the deeper lessons associated with the underlying structure and its associated patterns of behavior are completely missed. It is more appropriate for people to build and work with models to develop a deeper understanding of the relationships and then relate them to family, community, school and the world.
The predicament forcing us toward virtual collaboration and our learning about relationships is hopefully encouraging us toward the systemic perspective.
Causal loop diagrams are more rigorous than rich pictures though are still only contain a very few elements with well defined rules for connecting them.
An example of why it's so critical to understand where the boundaries are when considering a system. (developed from Eric Wolstenholme's Archetype examples by Gene Bellinger)
A system is an entity that the existence of which is maintained via the mutual interaction of its parts and which demonstrates characteristics not exhibited by any of its parts.
An escalation structure results from two or more competing entities with the competition taking them to somewhere none of them want to be. See also Archetypes.
When the typical approach doesn't work we tend to rely on our tried and true problem solving approaches, which as you will see really aren't that good.