This model shows the dynamics of use of a new medical technology based on its scope of use and perceived relative benefit. The technology needs cumulative usage to fix its glitches, and the benefits will be diluted  as the scope of use widens.

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

Main Page for Resilience

From SDR Jan 2012 article  and 1988 killian award lectures Youtube

A stock flow structure used to show the unit of analysis, scope of study and context of the ED Four hour rule project, cloned from im-399 monthly flows

This is a simpler version of Insight 649 showing the flow of Older People among the Community Hospital and Aged Care Residences

Kidney replacement therapy dynamics: causal loop diagram of the kidney dialysis and transplant model extended to Chronic Kidney Disease from MOTOHASHI and NISHI Int. J. Epidemiology1991; 20: 1032-1036

A work in progress model for ED daily average flows based on reported statistics by triage category with all triage categories aggregated. Based on a hospital performance report from  http://www.bhi.nsw.gov.au/publications/hospital_quarterly_3 

ithink example from isee systems using receptors

A RIch Picture unfolding representation of ED overcrowding based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals by HJWong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society advance online publication, 27 April 2011 doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164. 

An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj  and LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1974 p 195.

Exploring the conditions of permanent coexistence, rather than gradual disappearance of disadvantaged competitors. ​Z506 p32-35 System Zoo 3 by Hartmut Bossel.

Flows between acute hospital and aged care for older people. See IM-1012 for a simpler version

Detail from Incorporating organizational factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment(PRA) of complex socio-technical systems: A hybrid technique formalization article. See full overview at  insight 

This is a launchpad for patient flow insights for flows through the emergency department and hospital, including the broader community context. It also includes links to other insights relevant to ED flow improvement.

Upgrade of Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic SIR Infectious Disease Model (circa 2015) - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

This is a simple SIR infectious diseases 3 stock model with Susceptibles, Infectives and Recovereds stocks. In the initial description the R signified Removed and could include Deaths, Recovered with immunity to infection (Resistant) or those who had fled the epidemic. Note the need to initiate the epidemic by adding a pulse of a single infected person at time 0.

Addition of a slider for susceptibles is equivalent to accumulated total cases

SARS, MERS AND COVID are similar virus types only differing in their sub genus

The COVID outbreak has reached 150,000 infected people

This simulation allows an attempt at predicting how long the virus will persist and its longevity dependence on its high speed massive infection numbers that have reached pandemic proportions

SARS reached 8,000 infected total and ran for 9 months before stopping

MERS 2012 is still killing 8 years later with patients dying even after using interferon to try and cure them

updated 16/3/2020 from 5 years ago

Sources of Policy Resistance. From article Sterman, John D.  Learning from Evidence in a Complex World Am J Public Health 2006 96: 505-514. See also fighting complexity IM-1955