A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

WIP based on Geoffrey Brennan's Selection and the Currency of Reward chapter expanded from IM-396 

The dynamics of methadone treatment for intravenous opioid users. The major flows in this study were people cycling between being on methadone and off treatment. Monograph pdf

Hypertension Generic Patient Flow Causal Loop Diagram version of Insight 305

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj See IM 1769 for updated simpler version without serialization of the downstream stock

Extension of the first 1000 days insight to include the Lancet Feb 2023 breastfeeding framework including commercial milk formula marketing  

WIP example of Services oriented multiscale computable narrative synthesis focussed on Coping carefully with diabetes

Simplified version of IM-852  Erythropoiesis Stimulating Agents (ESA) Dosing in Anemia due to Renal Failure from Jim Rogers See Stock Flow Map  Insight 810 

Simulation model of the WIP Conceptual map IM-7671 of initial scope of the effects of the ED 4 hour rule based on June WA Teleconference and IM-8221. See also the conceptual maps of addition of indirect effects at IM-7775 and the potential wider context map in IM-6167

Adapted from Fig.4, from Ana V Diez Roux (2011) Complex Systems Thinking May Help Us Transcend Current Impasses in Health Disparities Research Am J Public Health 2011;101 1627-1634  http://ajph.aphapublications.org/cgi/content/abstract/101/9/1627?etoc

Population Model

Extension of IM-14124 with an adjusted bed capacity stock. For backlog and services see IM-8382

IPCC Extreme weather events combined context diagrams  FBE WIP

The effects of subsidies and incentives for private health insurance on the mix of public and private hospital use. The central role of adverse selection/moral hazard on private health insurance sustainability. See also updated version around 2017

Created in James Madison University's ISAT 341 Simulation and Modeling course by Joseph Straub and Andrew Funkhouser. Based on Mark Heffernan's Glucose-Insulin Insight Maker

Glucose Insulin Model Info:

Translated from Hormone.stm in Dynamic Modeling in the Health Sciences James L hargrove, Springer 1998, Ch 24 p255-261, by Mark Heffernan.

Here we have a basic SEIR model and we will investigate what changes would be appropriate for modelling the 2019 Coronavirus.

We add simple containment meassures that affect two paramenters, the Susceptible population and the rate to become infected.

The initial parametrization is based on the suggested current data. The initial population is set for Catalonia.

The questions that we want to answer in this kind of models are not the shape of the curves, that are almost known from the beginning, but, when this happens, and the amplitude of the shapes. This is crucial, since in the current circumstance implies the collapse of certain resources, not only healthcare.

The validation process hence becomes critical, and allows to estimate the different parameters of the model from the data we obtain. This simulation approach allows to obtain somethings that is crucial to make decisions, the causality. We can infer this from the assumptions that are implicit on the model, and from it we can make decisions to improve the system behavior.

Yes, simulation works with causality and Flows diagrams is one of the techniques we have to draw it graphically, but is not the only one. On https://sdlps.com/projects/documentation/1009 you can review soon the same model but represented in Specification and Description Language.

From David Rees PhD dissertation "Developing a Theory of Implementation for Better Chronic Health Management" Health Services Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

WIP to mirror Roam research Child page

Summary of evolution and the modern synthesis with genetics. See also the more recent extended synthesis IM-2099

Emergency care patient flows IM-6072 used as context to add confounders and potential unintended effects.

A Rich Picture Story representation of ED overcrowding based on Using system dynamics principles for conceptual modelling of publicly funded hospitals] by HJ Wong et al Journal of the Operational Research Society 63, 79-88 (January 2012) | doi:10.1057/jors.2010.164 Click the +view story on the bottom left