Are there environmental/physical limits to humanity? Based on the Are There Limits? blog post by Tom Fiddaman.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

There are limits to what one can infer from a qualitative model.

A small change in one variable can have a marked impact on multiple variables. Run the model [quits change] = 0  and consider the output. What happens if  you change [quits change] = 5. Run the model to find out. Was the change what you expected?

Balancing Loop with Stock & Flow Diagram.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

Clone of IM-752 map for working simulation model This model is derived from "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. An expanded map is at IM-1918.

Simplest Innovation diffusion model from Sterman's Business Dynamics Ch 9

All you wanted to do was put a bird feeder in your yard to attract birds and make for a more pleasant morning. And...

Little Red Riding Hood walking through the woods to Grandma's house. How long will it take?

To develop insights regarding a situation of interest there are a number of things should be considered to ensure a view of the relevant influences.

The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

Rich Pictures, Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock & Flow Simulation Models are the three types of models most commonly used.

This is a model depicting the interactions of the Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

This is a model depicting the interactions of the Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

Simplest Innovation diffusion model from Sterman's Business Dynamics Ch 9

The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

How we know what we know.

Based on a sound realization of reality we need an effective approach to dealing with situations which promotes the requisite understanding to develop a strategy that deals appropriately with the situation. A strategy which also is explicitly designed to minimize unintended consequences and puts in place responses to them should they arise.

Yesterday's actions are responsible for the world we experience today. And today's actions are responsible for the world that we will experience tomorrow. The "Creating the Future" model is intended to provide a better sense of the common process associated with the unexpected unfolding of the future..

If we pay close attention to our actions and the typical outcomes of those actions it would be evident that there are frequently occurring patterns that develop. And there is a relation between the patterns.

Simplest Innovation diffusion model from Sterman's Business Dynamics Ch 9

There are limits to what one can infer from a qualitative model.