There are limits to what one can infer from a qualitative model.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

Based on 1990 SDR Article. Control systems act to make their own input match internal standards or reference signals. Competent control systems create illusions of stimulus response causality. Stimulus-response theory can approximate the relationship between disturbance and action, but it can't predict the consequences of behavior. These consequences are maintained despite disturbances. See also Double loop learning and Nurse Thinking Insights

This is a model depicting the interactions of the Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

Balancing Loop with Stock & Flow Diagram.

Yesterday's actions are responsible for the world we experience today. And today's actions are responsible for the world that we will experience tomorrow. The "Creating the Future" model is intended to provide a better sense of the common process associated with the unexpected unfolding of the future..

All you wanted to do was put a bird feeder in your yard to attract birds and make for a more pleasant morning. And...

Are there environmental/physical limits to humanity? Based on the Are There Limits? blog post by Tom Fiddaman.

This is a model depicting the interactions of the Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

To develop insights regarding a situation of interest there are a number of things should be considered to ensure a view of the relevant influences.

The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

There are limits to what one can infer from a qualitative model.

This is a model depicting the interactions of the Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

Rich Pictures, Causal Loop Diagrams and Stock & Flow Simulation Models are the three types of models most commonly used.

Clone of IM-752 map for working simulation model This model is derived from "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. An expanded map is at IM-1918.

Based on a sound realization of reality we need an effective approach to dealing with situations which promotes the requisite understanding to develop a strategy that deals appropriately with the situation. A strategy which also is explicitly designed to minimize unintended consequences and puts in place responses to them should they arise.

Simplest Innovation diffusion model from Sterman's Business Dynamics Ch 9

How we know what we know.

Clone of IM-752 map for working simulation model This model is derived from "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. An expanded map is at IM-1918.

Simplest Innovation diffusion model from Sterman's Business Dynamics Ch 9