The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

The interaction of a population of Moose and Wolves.

Simplest Innovation diffusion model from Sterman's Business Dynamics Ch 9

All you wanted to do was put a bird feeder in your yard to attract birds and make for a more pleasant morning. And...

Consider the following "Sustaining the Forest" model intended to provide another example of how unexpected the behavior of a web of extended interactions can be.

Clone of IM-752 map for working simulation model This model is derived from "Nobody Ever Gets Credit for Fixing Problems that Never Happened: Creating and Sustaining Process Improvement" by Nelson P. Repenning and John D Sterman. An expanded map is at IM-1918.

While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.

We create the future as a result of the manner in which we choose to engage with situations which concern us. There is a also a video for this insight.

What do activities of these images have in common?

This is a model depicting the interactions of the Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

There are three types of models most commonly used.

All you wanted to do was put a bird feeder in your yard to attract birds and make for a more pleasant morning. And...

How we know what we know.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

The structure responsible for rabbit population growth.

All the following have a common characteristic.

Introduce the concept of modeling and simulation.

This model depicts the interactions of Aesop's Fable "The Boy Who Cried Wolf."

This common archetype of systems that include relapse or recidivism allows exploration of the unintended effects of increasing upstream capacity and swamping downstream capacity. The increase in the relapse rate eventually returns to swamp upstream capacity as well. A social welfare example, based on a TANF case study, from How Small System Dynamics Models Can Help the Policy Process. N. Ghaffarzadegan, J. Lyneis, GP Richardson. System Dynamics Review 27,1 (2011) 22-44 Conference version at http://bit.ly/HlxtZj

All the following have a common characteristic.

All you wanted to do was put a bird feeder in your yard to attract birds and make for a more pleasant morning. And...

Based on 1990 SDR Article. Control systems act to make their own input match internal standards or reference signals. Competent control systems create illusions of stimulus response causality. Stimulus-response theory can approximate the relationship between disturbance and action, but it can't predict the consequences of behavior. These consequences are maintained despite disturbances. See also Double loop learning and Nurse Thinking Insights

While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.

While these pictures represent very different things there is a common essence.