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​S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve Showing Erlang Distribution

Generation of Bell Curve from Initial Market through Delay in Pickup of Customers

This provides the beginning of an Erlang distribution model

The Erlang distribution is a two parameter family of continuous probability distributions with support . The two parameters are:

  • a positive integer 'shape' 
  • a positive real 'rate' ; sometimes the scale , the inverse of the rate is used.

S-Curve + Delay for Bell Curve by Guy Lakeman
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Book summary of Albert O Hirschman's 1982 book, explaining cycles of collective public action.
Shifting involvements
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Unfolding story based on Bogdanov's original A Short Course of Economic Science text and Pilyugina's 2019 article
Bogdanov Economic History of Societies
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Describes and draws on insights from the book, the "The End of Power" by Moises Naim, to examine the relationships between power, trust, and the ability of us collectively to deal with big issues such as climate change.
Clone of Tyranny-anarchy-power-trust
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In fairness it is not just the Republican Party that believes in Neoliberalism, but it seems to adhere to the most puritan form of it. The principal tenets of Neoliberalism, free and unfettered markets and tight fiscal control are diametrically opposed to what is needed to fight climate change and its effects. Such policies involve massive fiscal spending and government investment in new infrastructure and renewable energy.  They  also involve wide ranging regulation of the private sector,  especially restrictions on the fossil fuel industry. Accepting the reality of man-made climate change and the policies needed to counter it really amounts to admitting that Neoliberalism has failed. The CLD tries to illustrate the self-reinforcing dynamic that may have led the leaders of the Republican Party to deny climate change. Of course, there are also other factors involved, such as party loyalty, internal pressure to conform, cognitive dissonance and probably many more. Please also have a look at Insight 66858 which is related to this subject.

The Republican Party, Neoliberalism and Climate change Denial
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WIP Summary of Science 2019 article Dryzek The crisis of democracy and the science of deliberation
Deliberation without polarization
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A simple generic rich picture WIP view of interactions among social structures and agents and Boonstra's 2016 conceptualizing power article from Ecology and Society 

Power and Health Interests
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Map of Geoffrey M Hodgson's 2015 Conceptualizing Capitalism book summary pdf  with other ideologies added sept 2021 from new politics website
Capitalism and Ideologies
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WIP Summary of Davies 2017 article from special Theory Culture and Society issue on Elites and Power after Financialization
Elite Power under Advanced Neoliberalism
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Map of Causal Structure outlined in Thucydides History of the Peloponnesian War based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map, Matt Fisher's 2017 UC Berkeley Thesis on Tragic Science and other sources (see notes (i))
Thucydides Trap Sparta Athens War
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Book summary, relevant to positive capability framework
Just Freedom
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Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
Clone of Why Nations Fail
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THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

THE MODEL IS ZONE SPECIFIC AS GLOBAL WEATHER IS NOT HOMOGENEOUS BUT A COLLECTION OF HEAT BUMBPS DEPENDENT ON POPULATION SIZE OF URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND MASSED CONURBATIONS AND AGGLOMERATIONS 

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
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Map of Geoffrey M Hodgson's 2015 Conceptualizing Capitalism book summary pdf  with other ideologies added sept 2021 from new politics website
Clone of Capitalism and Ideologies
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WIP of several books of Karl Polanyi's thoughts and papers around social science economic history and capitalism. . See also Summary of the Great Transformation IM-10640
Karl Polanyi Holistic thinking
3 last month
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WIP Book summary of Frank Stilwell's 2019 Book, The Political Economy of Inequality, Polity Press podcast and slides
Political Economy of Inequality
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THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE  ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.
BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST. 
CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster
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A restatement of the ISDC Nijmegen 2006 paper Exploring the Political and Economic Dimensions of Health Policy This may benefit from simplification and using cultural theory. See IM-57161 for extension
Political Economy of Health Services
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Based on oid 2016 report to be compared with the Just Justice Framework WIP insight
Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage
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Describes and draws on insights from the book, the "The End of Power" by Moises Naim, to examine the relationships between power, trust, and the ability of us collectively to deal with big issues such as climate change.
Tyranny-anarchy-power-trust
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Australia has an independent national broadcasting service - the Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC). The ABC is legally required to be objective, which in practice encourages viewers to be swinging voters. However, the lack of anti-media-monopolisation laws in Australia means that a powerful Media Mogul can act as the propaganda arm of a particular party whether it is in majority government or not. The Conservative Liberal-National-Coalition Party​ of Australia always strives to erode, deconstruct and disempower the ABC. The other major party - the Australian Labor Party strongly supports the ABC and its non-partisan mandate. Therefore the political playing field in Australia is definitely not level and the current Government very much likes it that way, so it will never act to curb Rupert Murdoch's powers of influence in the country.
LNP-Murdoch_vs_ALP-ABC
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WIP Clone of Conceptualizing Capitalism Insight to summarise Thorstein Veblen's writings on the Nature of Capital and other Institutional economics concepts
Clone of Veblen Nature of Capital
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Investigations into the relationships responsible for the success and failure of nations. This investigation was prompted after reading numerous references on the subject and perceiving that *Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty* by Acemoglu and Robinson seem to make a great deal of sense.

Original model done for The Perspectives Project though recast into Kumu.
Clone of Why Nations Fail
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Summary of Lancet March 2023 Series See also Structure Agency Insight
Commercial Determinants of Health