Changes to V19: calculation of energy investments set on base and additional materials, not materials as a fraction of a total
Clone of energy-material transition model v20
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Global Climate Change
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
Changes to energy material transition model v20:
- with exponential demand: maximum constraint introduced
- societal Al intensity has to adjust to a min value (not linearly decreasing)
- Without material feedbacks: capacity expansion needs to at least compensate for capacity retirements
Clone of Energy-material model 4 tipping v01
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
Simplified system dynamics model of the global carbon cycle. The model represents carbon exchange among four aggregated reservoirs: atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, surface ocean, and deep ocean. Fossil fuel emissions enter the atmosphere as an external forcing, while internal flows redistribute carbon between the atmosphere, land, surface ocean, and deep ocean. The model is intended to explore transient behavior, natural carbon sinks, atmospheric carbon persistence, and the long-term regulating role of the ocean.
AR6 GlobalCarbonBalanceExpAtmOcean
Simplified system dynamics model of the global carbon cycle. The model represents carbon exchange among four aggregated reservoirs: atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, surface ocean, and deep ocean. Fossil fuel emissions enter the atmosphere as an external forcing, while internal flows redistribute carbon between the atmosphere, land, surface ocean, and deep ocean. The model is intended to explore transient behavior, natural carbon sinks, atmospheric carbon persistence, and the long-term regulating role of the ocean.
sensitivity GlobalCarbonBalance
Simplified system dynamics model of the global carbon cycle. The model represents carbon exchange among four aggregated reservoirs: atmosphere, terrestrial biosphere, surface ocean, and deep ocean. Fossil fuel emissions enter the atmosphere as an external forcing, while internal flows redistribute carbon between the atmosphere, land, surface ocean, and deep ocean. The model is intended to explore transient behavior, natural carbon sinks, atmospheric carbon persistence, and the long-term regulating role of the ocean.
5decreaseGlobalCarbonBalance
Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator: for the older (70+ years) population of Dorset, Bournemouth and Poole, UK, using the UKCP09 SRES A1B Emission Scenario.
Clone of Temperature Stress Mortality Simulator V2.1
Changes to V19: calculation of energy investments set on base and additional materials, not materials as a fraction of a total
Clone of energy-material transition model v20
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
Causal loop diagram based on Peter Brannen's Book The story of CO2 is the story of everything, based on my Gemini interaction March 2026 using Gene Bellinger's AI Prompts
The Carbon Cycle and Climate Change
Finding a location escape natural hazard , and man made crisis , into self suffcient peacfull / secured bubble
Choosing farm retreat and escape shelter
Causal Loop Diagram unfolding based on my Feb2026 Gemini interaction using Gene Bellinger's AI prompts Revisited Mar2026 with Fadhel Kaboub's Club of Rome Deep Dive Paper
Fadhel Kaboub Africa's Just Transition
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
Didactic model simulating the annual variation of the Earth's mean temperature based on CO₂ concentration, climate feedbacks (water vapor and greenhouse effect), the planet's thermal capacity, and empirical data from NOAA and NASA GISS. It allows exploration of how different factors contribute to climate change and facilitates understanding of the relationship between radiative forcings and the global thermal response.
CO2
Changes to V19: calculation of energy investments set on base and additional materials, not materials as a fraction of a total
Clone of energy-material transition model v20
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
The 3-machines energy transition model is a global system dynamics model based on energy balances, and used to explore the energy frontiers for stabilizing the Earth's climate. The model comprises a hypothetical fossil engine, a solar engine including energy storage, and a carbon scrubber. These machines interact with Earth's carbon cycle and satisfy humanity’s energy demand. A detailed description can be accessed here: https://osf.io/fcwt8/
Clone of 3 machines 2026 for materials v15
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
Das wichtigste Fazit von Frederic Vester lautet:
Der Klimawandel ist kein isoliertes Umweltproblem, sondern ein Symptom eines überlasteten, stark vernetzten Mensch-Umwelt-Systems. Dauerhafte Lösungen entstehen nicht durch einzelne Massnahmen, sondern durch ein Verständnis der Rückkopplungen und durch Eingriffe (Massnahmen) an den richtigen Hebelpunkten (Steuergrössen) des Gesamtsystems.
Der wichtigste Hebel liegt dabei eindeutig in der Systemvariablen 18 Verhaltensänderung, also imWandel unseres Konsumverhaltens und unserer Wertvorstellungen.
Klimawandel I - Version Frederic Vester (1990er-Jahre)
A model of Global Climate Change driven by the impact of Carbon Dioxide on the Greenhouse Effect. This model contains a physical model of energy inflows ☀️ and outflows from the Earth (primary source). And a simple model of carbon dioxide sources and sinks in the atmosphere (primary source).
The energy model assumes inflowing short-wave solar radiation that does not interact with the atmosphere. A fraction of this is reflected immediately (e.g. by snow and ice cover). The remaining is absorbed 🌎 and re-radiated as long-wave infrared which can be captured by the atmosphere ☁️. The fraction captured by the atmosphere is related to the level of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere.
This model tracks Carbon Dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels 🏭 and land use changes 🚜 (e.g. deforestation). It also tracks removal of Carbon Dioxide from the atmosphere into a land sink 🌲 (e.g. vegetation) and the an ocean sink 🏖.
🧪 Experiment with different levels of emissions to see their impact on global average temperatures. You can also compare predicted temperatures and Carbon Dioxide levels to historical data.
Clone of Global Climate Change
