This is a simple intervention project/programme planning tool aimed primarily at public health practitioners who want to understand potential impact.

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

Collapse of the economy, not just recession, is now very likely. To give just one possible cause, in the U.S. the fracking industry is in deep trouble. It is not only that most fracking companies have never achieved a free cash flow (made a profit) since the fracking boom started in 2008, but that  an already very weak  and unprofitable oil industry cannot cope with extremely low oil prices. The result will be the imminent collapse of the industry. However, when the fracking industry collapses in the US, so will the American economy – and by extension, probably, the rest of the world economy. To grasp a second and far more serious threat it is vital to understand the phenomenon of ‘Global Dimming’. Industrial activity not only produces greenhouse gases, but emits also sulphur dioxide which converts to reflective sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere. Sulphate aerosols act like little mirrors that reflect sunlight back into space, cooling the atmosphere. But when economic activity stops, these aerosols (unlike carbon dioxide) drop out of the atmosphere, adding perhaps as much as 1° C to global average temperatures. This can happen in a very short period time, and when it does mankind will be bereft of any means to mitigate the furious onslaught of an out-of-control and merciless climate. The data and the unrelenting dynamic of the viral pandemic paint bleak picture.  As events unfold in the next few months,  we may discover that it is too late to act,  that our reign on this planet has, indeed,  come to an abrupt end?  

This is a simple intervention project/programme planning tool aimed primarily at public health practitioners who want to understand potential impact.

This model was created for ENGR 102 - Studio 2

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts

First training model for systems dynamics modelling training

An overview of hybrid computational simulation methods based on Kurt Kreuger's workshops

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts

This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.

This is a simple intervention project/programme planning tool aimed primarily at public health practitioners who want to understand potential impact.

This model was created to model a disease

This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.

This is a population model designed for local health and care systems (United Kingdom). This model does not simulation male/female, but rather everyone in 5-year age groups.

This model was developed as part of the curriculum development for a short introductory course on systems dynamics modelling for health system analysts

An overview of this quantitative systems science method based on Kurt Kreuger's workshops for public health