Justice Models

These models and simulations have been tagged “Justice”.

Bourke is a remote town approximately 650km from Sydney with a population of 2634. 28% of the population us made up of youths from 19 years old and younger. With a reputation of being one of the most dangerous towns in New South Wales.

To combat this, the Maranguka Justice Reinvestment Project was established to manage the situation with a goal of reducing youth crime through a serious of community projects including Early Years Transition (to prepare children for school) and Drive for Free, a program where volunteer police officers provide free driving lessons.

This model has been developed to demonstrate how youth alienation, police and community development interact with each other.

Assumption

The following assumptions have been made:

25% of youths between the ages 10 - 24 are engaged in criminal behaviour.

75% have positive engagement in society

Youth age group is from 5 years - 24 years

Youths have a 48% chance of not be rehabilitated and re-offending

Conclusion

It is evident, investment in early educational programs will have a positive impact on Youths within the township of Bourke. Attendance rates have grown from 86% to 92%. The provision of a strong educational program will contribute to breaking the cycle and result in more youths growing up to have a positive impact on society. Attendance rate for schools will improve and there will be an increase number of students who complete year 12 and transition to tertiary educations and/or employment.

Investment of personal time of members of the police force to teach youths how to drive, has not only provided the kids with an opportunity they wouldn't ordinarily have due to family circumstances, but also decrease the amount of vehicle related offences.

There is a correlation between the investment of time and money to provide the you members of Bourke's society with the right education and positive reinforcement with the reduction of criminal/negative behaviour.

Bibliography

NSW Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research. (2020). NSW Local Government Area excel crime tables.

Alexander, H. (2019, May 29). How NSW town labelled 'most dangerous in world' changed its destiny. Retrieved from Sydney Morning Herald: https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/how-nsw-town-labelled-most-dangerous-in-world-changed-its-destiny-20190527-p51ri6.html

Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats. Retrieved from Australian Bureau of Statistics: https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument

Thompson, G., McGregor, L., & Davies, A. (2016, September 19). Backing Bourke: How a radical new approach is saving young people from a life of crime. Retrieved from ABC News: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-19/four-corners-bourkes-experiment-in-justice-reinvestment/7855114

Conceptual model of youth alienation, police and community develop in Bourke

Michaela Dwyer

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

About/Background:

This model provides a simulation of the youth where it depicts the interactions and activities amongst the parameters in this situation. The town of Bourke have been dealing with the issue of a high crime rate amongst the young and many being locked up which as a result has shattered families. Now the government is deciding on how they would approach spending their money on and this model will depict the various solutions and give an indicator of how it effective it maybe.

Initial Values:

Home - 1000

Juvenile Detention - 0

Sporting Clubs - 0

Trade Skills - 0

Petty Crime - 0

Interpersonal Relationships - 0

Variables:

Youth Redevelopment Expenditure: The value that the state government are able to spend on trade skills and sporting clubs

Interpersonal skills: The rate at which how proficient a youth can be with their interpersonal relationships with others

Police: The number of police that are available in the town of Bourke

Rehab: A certain proportion of those that are in the juvenile detention, will be rehabilitated

Assumptions:

- The youth population (Home) will be 1000 (a third of the population of Bourke's 3000)

- When there is an increase of police it will result in an increase amount of youths being caught as well as a decrease in crimes being committed

- When someone goes to juvenile detention and understood their mistakes, when they are released they will no longer have the urge to commit a crime

- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure will affect participation rates and reduce crime rates

- Youth Redevelopment Expenditure is spread equally to sporting clubs and trade skills

- Youths that participate in sporting clubs, trade skills and Interpersonal relationships will be less likely to commit a crime

- Those in juvenile detention will be released after a period of 6 months where a proportion of them have been rehabilitated.

Interesting Results:

1. If all the sliders are set to half (Police - 30, Rehab - 50, Youth Redevelopment Expenditure - 50, Interpersonal Skill - 50), Sporting Club appears to be the most popular community development program for youths

2. If police and Youth Redevelopment are to its max and rehab and interpersonal are set to 0, there seems be a much lower rate of crime being committed as well as higher number of youths participating in sporting clubs

3. If police was to be at its lowest (10), youth redevelopment at 100, rehab and interpersonal skill at 50, crime appears to be low while maintaining high rate of youth participating in sporting clubs and trade skills.

Assignment 3 Visagan 44888104

Visagan Kajendran

Model Explanation

This simple model highlights key investment areas within the Bourke community that can influence the overall levels of crime.

The total population of Bourke is split into a percentage of adults and youth who have differing participation rates in community groups. Those who are engaged as a member of a community group most to a positive lifestyle state.

Those who do not wish to join or are not engaged in a community group are offered tertiary education. Similarly, those engaged in tertiary education move to a positive lifestyle state. Those who do not seek or engage in tertiary education are alienated from the community. They are at an 80% chance of committing crime. The other 20% voluntarily reengage with society. Once a crime is committed, the individual is either arrested or eludes arrest. The likelihood of arrest varies depending on policing expenditure. An individual who is arrested will be placed on trial and if found guilty will be placed in a correctional facility (either a juvenile detention centre of jail).

Assumptions

Community engagement participation rates vary depending on the individuals age, with youth more inclined to join a community group. Variance in expenditure is reflected in participation rates in a linear fashion.

Members of Bourke who are not engaged in community groups are targeted and presented with the opportunity to participate in tertiary education such as the teaching of trade-skills. Those targeted have the same likeliness to participate in tertiary education regardless of age.

Those who do not seek any for of community involvement are considered alienated and at a high risk of committing crime.

Sliders have been included to vary the total population size of Bourke, with ratios of Adult to Youth remaining the same. Expenditure can be varied depending on government distribution with the input in dollars.

It is assumed that all relationships are linear within this model. Individuals who are either in a positive lifestyle or correctional facility are in that state for six months before returning to be part of the population of Bourke.

Interesting Results

Even with no Policing Expenditure, there are times when there are no individuals in a correctional facility if Community Engagement Expenditure and Tertiary Skills Development Expenditure is maximised.

44854730 - Justice Reinvestment Framework for Bourke

Josh Stevens

The complex systems model ‘Engagement vs Police Expenditure for Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW’ evaluates the effectiveness of allocating government funding to either community engagement activities or law enforcement. In this model, it is possible for the user to designate resources from a scale of 20-100 and to also modify the crime rate for both adults and youth. Below, there are detailed notes that describe the reasoning and assumptions that justify the logic applied to this model. Similar notes can be found when stocks, flows and variables is clicked under the field ‘notes’.

Portions

Government statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Bourke Shire Regional Council has approximately 3000 residents, made up of 65-63% adults and 35-37% youths.

Crime Rate

Police variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower crime rate if police expenditure was increased, thus also a higher crime rate if police expenditure was decreased. The figure in the numerator can be changed with the ‘maximum crime rate’ variable which represents the asymptotic crime rate percentage. Where police = 100 the selected crime rate is maximised.

Avoiding Gaol

Originally the formula incorporated the police as a variable, where the total amount of convicted crimes was subtracted from the total amount of crimes committed. However, the constant flow of crimes from repeat offender/a created an unrealistic fluctuation in the simulation. I settled for a constant avoidance rate of 25%. This assumes that an adult or youth committing a crime for the first time is just as likely to avoid conviction as a repeat offender.

Conviction

It is difficult to predict in a mathematical model how many adults or youths are convicted of crimes they commit. I determined a reasonable guess of maximum 75% conviction rate when Police = 100. In this formula, decreasing police spending equates into decreased conviction rate, which is considered a realistic representation.

Released

It is assumed that the average sentence for a youth is approximately 6 months detention. For an adult, it will be assumed that the average sentence is 12 months gaol. The discrepancy is due to a few basic considerations that include 1. Adults are more often involved in serious crime which carries a longer sentence 2. youths are convicted with shorter sentences for the same crime, in the hopes that they will have a higher probability of full rehabilitation.

Engagement

Rate of adult/youth engagement was estimated to be a linear relation. The maximum rate of engagement, assuming expenditure = 100, is set to 80%. This rate of engagement is a reasonable guess with consideration that there will also exist adults who refused to engage in the community and end up in crime, and adults or youth that refuse to engage in the community or crime.

Boredom

Engagement Expenditure variable is in the denominator to create a hyperbolic trend. The aim was to achieve a lower boredom rate with a higher engagement expenditure, and thus a higher boredom rate with a lower engagement expenditure. The figure in the numerator of 25 represents the asymptotic boredom rate percentage, where if engagement expenditure = 100 the adult/youth boredom rate is maximised at 25%.

Assessment #3 Justice Reinvestment in Bourke, NSW 44841396

Mark Robinson

WIP Based on Just Justice book from croakey website .to be compared with oid 2016 report insight on overcoming indigenous disadvantage

Just Justice tackling Aboriginal Over-Incarceration

Geoff McDonnell

THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).
Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:

It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300

Detected violent families: 100.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Tuan Dat Huynh

THE MODEL

Underlying assumptions:

Police Force has a negative relationship with committed crime (criminals) and has a positive relationship with Juvenile Detention.
Community Investment has a negative relationship with committed crime.
Family – Police relations is negatively related to domestic violence rate, which has positive relationship with committed crime.
Only the youth are law-breaking citizens (as this model mainly focuses on this population).
Coefficients are chosen arbitrarily. We may need more real data and research to determine the appropriate ones.

Constants:

It took six months for Community Investment (which includes soccer team, trade-skills class and driving class) and Family – Police Relations to work.
Juvenile detention length is also 6 months.

Things to note:

Youth in Bourke committed crime mainly because of the influence from high domestic violence rate, low police force rate (police investment), as well as low community investment rate. The figure was used to calculate the number of youth committing crime is the average of these three rates.
Those violent families were detected by the Police Force, but then supervised by the responsible team, therefore reduce bad effects on the youths who have been suffering from that and finally reduce the likelihood of committing crimes.
Community Investment in forming soccer team, trade-skills classes and driving classes moved a portion of returning criminals (the ones not got caught) to community engagement, therefore reduce the chances of committing crimes of these individuals.
Maximizing the Police Force rate is probably the best way to reduce crime in short-term, but not likely in long-term because detention facilities cost much of the budget and it is not going to benefit the community. Since it is assumed that the total budget for justice reinvestment campaign in Burke is 50 units, an initial setting of 10, 25 and 15 units for Police Force, Community Investment and Family-Police Relations respectively is recommended.

Initial values:

Youth in town: 1200.

Criminals: 100.

Juvenile Detention: 100.

Violent families: 300

Detected violent families: 100.

Clone of Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Sarah Herring

Summary of US apa2017 report pdf link

Clone of Stress and Health Disparities

Jeb Eddy

Child and youth mental health and wellbeing synthesis with a focus on adverse childhood experiences and youth suicide WIP See also added Women and Violence IM

Early Childhood Intervention

Geoff McDonnell

This is a simple model that depicts the interactions between certain parameters in a hypothetical situation. It is designed to model the effects of investments in Policing and Community amongst Youth inside the town of Bourke.

Bourke is a rural town located 800km North-West of Sydney with alarmingly high rates of crime, especially amongst the Youth in the town, due to a lack of interesting activities to occupy their spare time. The government has taken note of this and is planning a program which sees to invest funds into certain areas, in hopes of reducing the crime rate and amount of convictions primarily within the Youth Community.

Initial Values:
Youth: 750
Juveniles in Detention: 50
Petty Criminals: 200
Sports and Trade Skills/Education: 0

Assumptions:

With the total amount of Youth entering Community Invested activities such as Sports and Trade Skills/Education, 70% of the entire of population of the youth entered is assumed to have selected the Sports team, compared to 30% that has selected Trade Skills/Education.
There is a negative correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the temptation to commit crime.
There is a positive correlation between the number of Police Enforcement and the amount of Convictions, but over time, the number of convicted youth will reduce and temptation decreases.
The time taken to contribute back to the Youth Community from Sports Team will only take 3 months, compared to the 6 months taken to contribute back from Trade Skills, as it is generally easier to adapt to a Sports Team than learn a Skill from Education.
There is a 50% release rate for Juveniles inside the Detention Centre.
There are no other external influences other than Police and Investment in Community.
The benefit Youth can gain from the Sports Team or Trade Skills Classes is dependent on the amount of Community Investment; as Investment rises, the temptation of them to commit a petty crime decreases.
Youth that commit a crime can either be caught by Police and be convicted to Detention, or be undetected and return back to the Youth Community.

Key Notes:

During initial implementation of an Police increase, it should be noted that the number of convictions rise drastically in the first few months.
If no other implementations or adjustments are made to the level of Investment or Policing, all parameters will eventually smooth out or level out over time.
It is more effective to increase Investments into Community in terms of reducing temptation, rather than increasing the number of Police.
If Investment was put to its' extreme and Police Enforcement was put to the minimum of 1, Juvenile Detention will be at its' lowest, since Youth are not being caught.
Conversely, if Investment was at 0 and Policing was at its' extreme, the number of Juveniles will not drop below 500.

Jack Sun 44614586

Patterns of Crime and Community Development in Bourke

Jack Sun

WIP summaries of bill mitchell's blog postings related to the connections between macroeconomics and wellbeing, particularly via unemployment and inflation

Clone of Unemployment and wellbeing

sub cribed

Based on oid 2016 report to be compared with the Just Justice Framework WIP insight

Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage

Geoff McDonnell

WIP Clone of IM-94482 Early Childhood Intervention with added Women's Health and Violence frorm Montesanti2015 mapping article

Early Childhood Intervention with Women and Violence focus

Geoff McDonnell

ContextBourke is a remote town located 800km northwest of Sydney, situated on the Darling River. The Maranguka Justice Reinvestment project emerged as Bourke was concerned about the number of Aboriginal families experiencing high levels of social disadvantage and rising crime. Bourke has worked for many years to develop a model for improving outcomes and creating better coordinated support for vulnerable families and children through the true empowerment of the local Aboriginal community. Maranguka, meaning ‘caring for others’ in Ngemba language, is a model of Indigenous self-governance which empowers the community to coordinate the right mix and timing of services through an Aboriginal community owned and led, multi-disciplinary team working in partnership with relevant government and non-government agencies (Impact of Maranguka Justice Reinvestm...)
The Model
This model simulates the effects of community support funding and crime on at risk youth in the town of Bourke. It also shows how key indicators affect the engagement of youth in society. Breaking the cycle of self destruction by providing support at all stages.

Variables
Bourke Youth- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of population numbers on the effectiveness of community projects and funding levels.Community Funding- This variable can be adjusted to show the impact of community support programs to create positive behaviour change.Crime Rate – This variable can be adjusted to show the impact on at risk youth.

Conclusion
The model clearly shows that an increase in support services via increased funding will help break the cycle of youth alienation and build better futures.

Justice Reinvestment in Bourke

Bethanie Clarke

WIP based on Tom Keneally's Three Famines Book

Clone of Three Famines

sub cribed