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This three loop goal-seeking structure identifies the three key influences on managing blood glucose for people with diabetes - insulin injections reduce blood glucose levels, exercise reduces blood glucose levels, and food increases blood glucose levels. The balance of all three is necessary to manage diabetes.

Clone of Diabetes Management (3 loops)

Naviyn Prabhu Balakrishnan

$This is a simple implementation of the SIR epidemiological model. See Wikipedia for a description. The number of new infections is proportional to the total number of infected people, the fraction of the population that remains susceptible, and the ratio of the total number of infections p$

This is a simple implementation of the SIR epidemiological model. See Wikipedia for a description.

The number of new infections is proportional to the total number of infected people, the fraction of the population that remains susceptible, and the ratio of the total number of infections per case and the typical time to recover from an infection.

SIR Disease Propagation Model

Bob Kopp

This three loop goal-seeking structure identifies the three key influences on managing blood glucose for people with diabetes - insulin injections reduce blood glucose levels, exercise reduces blood glucose levels, and food increases blood glucose levels. The balance of all three is necessary to manage diabetes.

Clone of Diabetes Management (3 loops)

Mariane Kfoury

SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Clone of SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

Greg King

Ocular Rosacea is a systemic disease related to the faulty functioning of the immune system. This means that there will be repeated flare-ups and frequent recurrences of the 'pink eye' condition it triggers. Systemic illnesses are best treated with systemic means such as antibiotics. Because facial rosacea (red nose and cheeks) does not correlate with manifestations of ocular rosacea, such a pink eye or blepharitis (red eye lids), it is often underdiagnosed. The fundamental approach using specifically doxycycline at only 40mg permits maintaining the treatment over long periods to prevent frequent recurrence. This could be particulary important for patients suffering repeated bouts of blepharits / conjuntivits. Its effectiveness at a low sub-antibiotic level has been shown in a study by Ines Pfeffer et al. (2011). Please also have a look at Insight 74700 Ocular Rosacea 1

Systemic Treatment: Ocular Rosacea 2

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

OVERSHOOT GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

Clone of OVERSHOOT GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Scott Keely

Modelling CVD Prevention

CVD Prevention Model

Hadley Nanayakkara

SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Clone of SIR model with waning immunity - Metrics by Guy Lakeman

Anderson Stanciole

Ocular Rosacea is a systemic disease related to the faulty functioning of the immune system. This means that there will be repeated flare-ups and frequent recurrences of the 'pink eye' condition it triggers. Systemic illnesses are best treated with systemic means such as antibiotics. Because facial rosacea (red nose and cheeks) does not correlate with manifestations of ocular rosacea, such as pink eye or blepharitis (red eye lids) it is often underdiagnosed. This is particularly so because nonspecific conjunctivitis (pink eye) is indistinguishable from conjunctivitis triggered by ocular rosacea. This underdiagnosis has been confirmed by various scientific studies and can, unfortunately, lead to suboptimal treatment of the red eye condition. Please also have a look at Insight 74712 Ocular Rosacea 2

Systemic Treament: Ocular Rosacea 1

Hanns-Jürgen Hodann

This model should be used purely for personal interest. I’m a designer and have no training in epidemiological studies. So, take this as an interesting experiment and nothing else.

I made it for a university subject looking into modelling and thought this was a very interesting topic area.

Using figures from:

Zhang, L., Peng, P., Wu, Y., Ma, X., Soe, N. N., Huang, X., Wu, H., Markowitz, M., & Meyers, K. (2018). Modelling the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of prep for HIV transmission in MSM in China. *AIDS and Behavior*, *23*(2), 523-533. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10461-018-2205-3

Schneider, K., Gray, R. T., & Wilson, D. P. (2014). A cost-effectiveness analysis of HIV Preexposure prophylaxis for men who have sex with men in Australia. *Clinical Infectious Diseases*, *58*(7), 1027-1034. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/cit946

AFAO. (2021). *HIV IN AUSTRALIA*. Australian Federation of AIDS Organisations. https://www.afao.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/HIV-in-Australia-2021.pdf

Department of Health. (2018). *National HIV Strategy* (8). Commonwealth of Australia. https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/ohp-bbvs-1/$File/HIV-Eight-Nat-Strategy-2018-22.pdf

Monitoring HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (Prep) uptake in Australia: Issue 1*. (2021, June 29). Kirby Institute. https://kirby.unsw.edu.au/report/monitoring-hiv-prep-uptake-australia-issue1

Monitoring HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (Prep) uptake in Australia: Issue 4*. (2021, June 29). Kirby Institute. https://kirby.unsw.edu.au/report/monitoring-hiv-prep-uptake-australia-issue4

PrEP affordability and its effects on infections

Jason Moisiadis

THE 2017 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2017 Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Arnaud Huar

THE 2018 MODEL (BY GUY LAKEMAN) EMPHASIZES THE PEAK IN POLLUTION BEING CREATED BY OVERPOPULATION.
WITH THE CARRYING CAPACITY OF ARABLE LAND NOW BEING 1.5 TIMES OVER A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE (PASSED IN 1990) AND NOW INCREASING IN LOSS OF HUMAN SUSTAINABILITY DUE TO SEA RISE AND EXTREME GLOBAL WATER RELOCATION IN WEATHER CHANGES IN FLOODS AND DROUGHTS AND EXTENDED TROPICAL AND HORSE LATTITUDE CYCLONE ACTIVITY AROUND HADLEY CELLS

The World3 model is a detailed simulation of human population growth from 1900 into the future. It includes many environmental and demographic factors.

THIS MODEL BY GUY LAKEMAN, FROM METRICS OBTAINED USING A MORE COMPREHENSIVE VENSIM SOFTWARE MODEL, SHOWS CURRENT CONDITIONS CREATED BY THE LATEST WEATHER EXTREMES AND LOSS OF ARABLE LAND BY THE ALBEDO EFECT MELTING THE POLAR CAPS TOGETHER WITH NORTHERN JETSTREAM SHIFT NORTHWARDS, AND A NECESSITY TO ACT BEFORE THERE IS HUGE SUFFERING.

BY SETTING THE NEW ECOLOGICAL POLICIES TO 2015 WE CAN SEE THAT SOME POPULATIONS CAN BE SAVED BUT CITIES WILL SUFFER MOST.

CURRENT MARKET SATURATION PLATEAU OF SOLID PRODUCTS AND BEHAVIORAL SINK FACTORS ARE ALSO ADDED

Use the sliders to experiment with the initial amount of non-renewable resources to see how these affect the simulation. Does increasing the amount of non-renewable resources (which could occur through the development of better exploration technologies) improve our future? Also, experiment with the start date of a low birth-rate, environmentally focused policy.

Clone of 2018 OVERPOPULATION LEADS TO POLLUTION based on Weather & Climate Extreme Loss of Arable Land and Ocean Fertility by Guy Lakeman - The World3+ Model: Forecaster

Shophika Vaithyanathasarma

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with herd immunity

SIR model with herd immunity

Rosemarie Sadsad

Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt

Where

• F(t) is the probability of failure

• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)

• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime,
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life

If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life

The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.

Wearout

The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period.

Clone of Clone of Clone of BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK

Alena Peskova

SARS Modelling with SEIR Model.

Author: Aulia Nur Fajriyah & Lutfi Andriyanto

Clone of SEIR

pemsim kelompok 3

Dosage per day, Doses per day, Every ? hours, Medicine in Intestines, Drug absorption, Plasma level, Blood volume, Plasma concentration, Toxic level, Medicinal level, Drug excretion, Excretion rate, Half-Life

Clone of Pharmacokinetics

Miftahul Jannah

First model developed for Senior Design dealing with Healthcare Analytics

Senior Design of Chronic Disease Management

Chris Anderson

Hipertiroid merupakan penyakit berlebihnya hormon Tiroid yang diproduksi tubuh. Faktor penyebabnya bisa karena bawaan lahir ataupun karena tubuh salah menerjemahkan zat tertentu (bisa dicari di literatur kesehatan terkait).

Pada contoh ini, dimisalkan seseorang memiliki level hormon sebanyak 14 dengan pertumbuhannya 0.2 per hari. Padahal, di sini kondisi manusia normal memiliki level hormon antara 3.4 hingga 7.9.

Untuk mengurangi level hormonnya, maka dia perlu mengonsumsi penurun hormon Tiroid yaitu Thyrozol. Berdasarkan pengalaman, seorang penderita penyakit ini tetap harus mengonsumsi ~10 mg Thyrozol tiap hari untuk menjaga agar hormonnya tidak naik. Maka dari itu, persamaan-persamaan yang dipakai di sini adalah:

[Thyroid Level] = [Thyrozol Dose]*0.2 - [Grow Rate]

Normal_Condition = ([Max Normal Level]+[Min Normal Level])/2

[Thyrozol Dose] = ([Thyroid Level]/Normal_Condition)*10

Thyroid Hormon Model on Hyperthyroidsm Patient Therapy

Harry Krisna

En France, la consommation d’ecstasy chez les jeunes de 17 ans (comportement) a augmenté (description du comportement sur la période) de 100% (mesure du changement sur la période) entre 2011 et 2014 (période de temps du comportement).

Clone of Info. & Décisions

Dufour Alexandre

EEIS Health App

Mona

Risk behaviours points of intervention

Jacqueline Davison

A Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) disease model with waning immunity

Clone of SIR Model with waning immunity

Samir Jain

Based on oid 2016 report to be compared with the Just Justice Framework WIP insight

Overcoming Indigenous Disadvantage

Geoff McDonnell

En France, la consommation d’ecstasy chez les jeunes de 17 ans (comportement) a augmenté (description du comportement sur la période) de 100% (mesure du changement sur la période) entre 2011 et 2014 (période de temps du comportement).

Clone of Info. & Décisions

Dufour Alexandre

Health Models