The Cred System is an alternative to traditional currency that increases community resiliency and reduces participant's dependence on traditional dollars. This model is a basic description of the Cred System, involving four people and two loops.
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
This model illustrates the simulation of a range of variables which have an effect within the country town of Bourke. Bourke is known for its high crime right from youths to adults. Through adjustments made by the user, this model will show the result of such variations.
Bourke has a youth population under the age of 24 to be roughly 1000 people. For the sake of this experiment numbers have been slightly skewed to better reinforce various simulations. However, the information has been been skewed to the fact that there are going to be unrealistic results.
The variable which have sliders allowed are, Police Intervention, Drugs and Alcohol, Community Works, Activity Investment. While developing this model, through examination, it was found that these are the numbers that fluctuate the most in most scenarios, so why not keep it consists. Police presence is something that will always either increase or decrease depending on certain events which are scheduled to be on. The fluctuation of drugs and alcohol speaks for itself, as there is no way of knowing how much of either substance is readily available.
Community Workers, is set at 70, with the option of sliding it in which ever direction the user desires. Similarly, to police intervention, depending on events the level can significantly fluctuate. Activity Investment has a relationship with Community workers and Police Intervention. Increased volume in people results in increased investment.
Interesting Slides
After playing around here are some interesting variations you can make.
--> Police Intervention: Max, Drugs and Alcohol: min, Community workers: Max, Activity Investment: Max. The worm here shows a perfect situation of almost complete harmony within the community. I believe an increase in Police presence, Community works and activity investment will ultimately deter crime and antisocial behaviour in Bourke.
--> Do the opposite maxs and mins from the above test. With the increase in Drugs and Alcohol and minimisation of the other variables, we can see how volatile it makes the community. The worms for all stocks are aggressively up and down.
--> i have gone to the liberty of creating a display for you(the Viewer) at crimes committed while drug use has been present, however the person has gone straight to rehab and not to Jail.
Assumptions
1.The population of Bourke is 5000
2.The process of crime to Detention/Rehab, is the same for Youths and Adults.
3. In the Youth and Adult Detention Stock, the youths are separated from adults
4. Adults and youths can go straight to Rehab and not go to Jail.
Assignment 3 MGMT220 **Scroll down for adjustable sliders**
What is this model?
This model is designed as a simplified field of inputs and outputs for the proposed future justice reinvestment in the north-western NSW town of Bourke. This town is quite small with a total population of around 3,000 people but a worryingly high rate of criminal activity, antisocial behaviour and a generally low sense of community engagement. To plan for a better future this model has been created to map future patterns and changes given certain levels of community investment and policing which can me modified by users, including you!
Key Assumptions & Things to Note: -Model interactions and consequences only focused on the effects of youth not adults. -Total youth population assumed to be 1,500 out of the total 3,000 people in Bourke -Model moves in monthly increments -Model duration is 5 years (60 Months) as this seems like a realistic time frame for such a project plan to span over -Engagement return modification allows between 0 and 6 months return to allow insight into the positive effects a shorter engagement time can have on the community -Police Investment allows adjustment of police force units between 15 and 50 -Community Investment allows an investment of between 0 and 100 to provide a full spectrum of the town with or without investment
Model Prerequisite Understandings: The model commences with 400 people engaging in criminal activity, and a further 300 people already in juvenile detention to provide a more realistic start point.
Model Analysis: The most important message this model shows is that there is no one sided solution for everything. Without community investment, regardless of how many police you have the town is still going to be full of bored people committing crimes - just more will be caught and convicted.
On the flip side a town with no police and only community investment may have a low rate of people in juvenile detention and a high number of people in sports teams - but criminal activity may still be higher than optimal due to a low chance of getting caught.
You can see these results for yourselves simply by adjusting the variable sliders on the bottom right of the page to suit your investment interests. Relevant boundaries have been set to give only useful and meaningful information. Furthermore an engagement return tool has been added to show the effects of a slow or fast engagement pickup time ranging from 0 to 6 months. You will note that things change a lot quicker with a shorter engagement return time.
An interesting thing to note is how evenly 3 of the 4 key data fields in the first simulation display (with the outlier being sports team enrolment) when police investment is set to maximum and community investment is set to the minimum - we see essentially an even split between the 3 possibilities: In town, In Juvenile Detention or engaging in Criminal Activity. a 2:1 split of "bad" to "good" things happening. This shows with certainty that just adding policing with no positive reward or outlet for good behaviour results in a flattened cycle of boredom, criminal activity and conviction.
In this model it also seems that Bourke does require a fairly even but high matching of Police and Community Investment. For example setting the policing at 20 and the community engagement higher at say 50 results in indeed a high intake and output of town to sports team memberships however crime rates do still maintain a steady high dictating a more even match between policing and community investment like 40 and 60 to the former and latter to "eradicate" crime. (Of course this will never be 0 in the real world but it is a positive indicator here)
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
A collaborative class project with each participant creating an animal/plant sub-model to explore the greater population/community dynamics of the Yellowstone ecosystem.
Description: This model focuses on the youth population of the community of Bourke in Australia. It shows the crime development of the youth population depending on the relationships of the expenditure provided by the police and community, crime rate and release rate of Bourke, and the rate of atonement failure.
Initial Assumptions:
Youth in community: 1000 Mischievous youths: 200 Youth involved in crime: 140 Youth in jail: 80
How the Model Works:
1. Youth in Community The model starts from being a youth in the community with no real motive which is affected by the community development expenditure. There are two paths that the youth can take, becoming bored of the community and staying as a normal youth with no motive in the community. There is a 70% chance of the youth becoming bored of the community and becoming mischievous as the community did not satisfy the youths' boredom.
2. Mischievous Youth After transitioning to a normal youth to a mischievous youth, there are two paths that the mischievous youth can take. The non criminal activity path which is when the mischievous youth is not bored from the community anymore and proceeds back into the community, this path is affected by the community development expenditure. The second path is becoming involved with criminal activity and thus becoming a criminal, which is affected by the 40% crime rate of Bourke.
3. Criminal After becoming a criminal youth, there are two paths that the youth can go down. The first path involves not being caught by the police yet and are still wondering around in the community at a 20% chance. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable as the criminal youth, despite going back into the community, is still willing to be involved in crime. The second path is getting caught by the police and is jailed at an 80% chance. This path is affected by the police expenditure used to catch the criminal youth.
4. Jailed After being jailed by the police, the criminal youth can be released back into the community after their sentence has been completed, they can either still be involved in crime or a mischievous youth. The first path is failing to atone for their crimes even after spending a period of time in jail, with a 20% chance of happening. This path is affected by the atonement failure variable. The second path is being released back in the community at a 90% chance as a mischievous youth as they have learned their lesson in jail and will cease any criminal activities for the time being. After a period of time the released mischievous youth can take two paths, being involved with criminal activity again at a 40% chance or atoning for their crimes and becoming a non criminal youth with no ill-intentions at a 70% chance.
Simulation:
Relationship of Number of Criminal Youths and the Number Non-Criminal Youths: This time series compares the number of criminal youths, mischievous youths, and non criminal youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
Number of Jailed Criminal Youths and Criminal Youths who have yet to be caught: This time series compares the number of jailed criminal youths and criminal youths who have yet to be caught for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
Youths who have Failed to Atone and who have Atoned: This time series compares the number of youths who have failed to atone after being released from jail and the number of youths who have been released from jail and have atoned Youths for each following half year for 10 years in Bourke.
This is a food web model that shows native populations of organisms in the Hudson River, NY. I created this as a static model of the food web for my Ecology course through the Museum of Natural History.
This model DOES NOT include the invasive zebra mussels. I will make a second version that does include the invasives.
This model is an advanced form of the community growth model. It has three stages and different transitions between the stages. I hope that it behaves more flexible than the Community Growth Model
An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.
Model Explanation
This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.
This is a conceptual model that encapsulates the relationships between youth, community and police & justice within the town of Bourke, located in New South Wales, Australia. The conceptual model is interactive and when the funding and engagement models are changed, the rates will increase or decrease in the simulation. These sliders can be found at the bottom of this description.
Bourke is a municipality located on the Darling River, 760km north-west of Sydney. The population of Bourke is 2634 (2017) of which 829 people identify as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander. This is approximately 31% of the population. Maranguka translates in local Ngemba language to "caring for others" and thus is the name given to the Bourke Reinvestment Project. The project is a collaborate works between the local community and Just Reinvest NSW and aims to break down the high rates of juvenile crime, domestic violence and criminal activity that made Bourke one of the most dangerous places in Australia.
By diverting the funds usually allocated to police and criminal systems into the community, the project has seen immense success particularly in youth and education sectors, with increased rates of Year 12 Retention, the completion of VET Courses and an increase in driving licenses.
Assumptions:
* Total number of Youths in Bourke based on the 2016 Consensus Data via the ABS is 903 (0-24 years)
* There was a 66% retention rate of Year 12 students in 2017
* 115 driving licenses were allocated in 2017 and this number will increase with community engagement and funding
* 56% of juveniles committed crime prior to the project
* Of this 56%, 51 juveniles breached bail
* 50% of juvenile offenders will be rehabilitated and find employment or education
Variables:
* Community Funding
* Community Engagement
* Police & Justice Funding
In conclusion, rates of juvenile crime will decrease with increased community funding and engagement. This will also lead to increased year 12 retention, completion and the increase of driving licenses. The assumption is that increased education will also lead to increased employment.
Resources:
Allam, L. (2018, October 8). Unique community policing sees crime rates plunge in Bourke. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/09/unique-community-policing-sees-rates-plunge-in-bourke
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). 2016 Census QuickStats: Bourke (A). Quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au. https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/LGA11150?opendocument
KPMG. (2018). Maranguka Justi ce Rei nvestment Proj ect IMPACT ASSESSMENT. https://www.justreinvest.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Maranguka-Justice-Reinvestment-Project-KPMG-Impact-Assessment-FINAL-REPORT.pdf
Milliken, R. (2018, December 10). Breakthrough at Bourke. Inside Story. https://insidestory.org.au/breakthrough-at-bourke/
Insight Maker was utilized to demonstrate the relationship between Alienated Youth, police and Community Development. And the affect of Counselling can have on such youth. The Influence of activities was also depicted that can led to Criminal activities and Drug Abuse among such Youth. The model was made considering the youth within Burke.
Relationships As can be seen that, the police enforcement plays a vital role, in the shaping the lives of youth. Hence, with the Increase in police force and increase in such initiates, the crime is like to decrease. Hence, the youth shall also be kept away from all of such interactions and such Acts.
Also, the Community Development shall also play a vital role, in two folds. First it shall play a part in shaping the very mindset of youth , to indulge in positive activities and refrain from illegal activities. Second of all, it shall provide rehabilitation to youth that have been subjected to such crimes and such events.
Conclusion It can be Concluded that, with increase in Police enforcement and Community Development, the overall crime can be reduced. The Youth thereupon will only indulge in positive activities.
Variables
There are two Variables involved in the model
1. Police Enforcement
It measures how effectively and efficiently police go about fulfilling its duties; Identifying potential criminals and stopping them from committing crime and punishing criminal who are guilty.
2. Community Development
Community development intervenes by changing the mindset of alienated and rehabilitated youth and hence affecting the flow towards Social Interactive Activities.
Adjusting Variables
Police enforcement can be adjusted using the slider given below. There is no choice given to adjust community development as it is affected by various factors of the society; education, culture, morals etc.
Assumptions
Youth engaged in Social Interactive Activities can never become alienated and hence will not go to drugs. In other words, a socially interactive youth member will be engaged in sports, education, gaming or café rather than drugs.
Youth are defined as ages 15-24, comprising of a population of 80. (ABS, 2016)
References
Australian Bureau of Statistics. (2016). General Community Profile. (Cat. No. 2001.0). https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/communityprofile/LGA11150?opendocument
An educated assumption was made with the youth crime rate in Bourke. According to the ABS the youth crime rate of Australia is 14% in 2013-14. However, taking into consideration the poor standards of living and lack of education and care for youth in Bourke, it is expected that the youth crime will be more then double so the figure 40% was used in this model.
Model Explanation
This simple model starts off in town, with estimated 500 youth in the community. As said above 40% is expected to commit crime with a percentage of the crime population getting away not caught. This number depends on how many are caught and also how many police are out in the town. According to the "Boscar" (Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research) NSW's conviction rate is 85.7%. Even though the conviction is relatively high, Bourke's conviction rate was set at 60% due to the high level of crime against the number of police available.
In juvenile detention the expected number of youth is 120, with 50% of those being released. There is a delay of 6months during this process because whoever is convicted has to stay inside the juvenile detention for 6months before being released.
Those youths that does not commit crime has the choice to be a member of a sports team. These sports team has been funded by the community and the government through "Youth redevelopment Expenditure". This system allows teenagers in Bourke to be away from crime committing environment, hence reducing Youth crime rate in Bourke.
The two sliders "Police" and "Youth Redevelopment Expenditure" indicates the intensity of spending on these two subjects. The result of Bourke's crime rate and sports team engagement changes depending on these sliders.
The Cred System is an alternative to traditional currency that increases community resiliency and reduces participant's dependence on traditional dollars. This model is a basic description of the Cred System, involving four people and two loops.
An adaptation of the URBAN1 Model from Navid Ghaffarzadegan, John Lyneis and George P Richardson's How small system dynamics models can help the public policy process. System Dynamics Review 27: 22-44 (2011) Researchgate link and eolss synopsis based on LA Alfeld and AK Graham's Introduction to Urban Dynamics 1976. Also p 195 (Dynamo Model Listing).
An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/
This is a food web model that shows native populations of organisms in the Hudson River, NY. I created this as a static model of the food web for my Ecology course through the Museum of Natural History.
This model DOES INCLUDE the invasive zebra mussels.
