This model projects how the population of the Charlottetown Census Agglomeration can change over the next 100 years, starting with 96,516 people, as of January 14, 2026. Population change is based on the annual birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates from Statistics Canada. Births and immigration add people to the population, while deaths and emigration can reduce it. The model also looks at population density, which means the number of people living in each square kilometre. The Charlottetown Census Agglomeration has a land area of 1,112.43 km², which is kept the same throughout our simulation. As the population increases or decreases, the number of people living in each square kilometre also changes. A Population Density Index is included to make this change easier to understand; the density at the beginning of the model is represented by 1. An index of 2 would mean that twice as many people are living in each square kilometre compared with the beginning of the simulation.
Over the 100-year simulation, the model shows the Charlottetown Census Agglomeration population increasing from 96,516 people to approximately 520,000 people. Since the land area remains the same, population density also increases from about 87 people/km² to approximately 468 people/km² (calculations and data used to determine these values are provided within the corresponding variables). This means the Population Density Index increases from 1 to approximately 5.4, indicating that the population density is about 5.4 times the starting density. These results show what could happen if the birth, death, immigration, and emigration rates used in the model remained constant over the entire 100 years and thus should be viewed as a modelled scenario rather than a prediction of Charlottetown's actual future population.
The simulation results appear in the Simulation Results displays, which provide separate views of the 100-year population projection, population density projection, and a results table showing population, population density, as well as the Population Density Index over time.
