Finance | Insight Maker

This model gives an insight in the Study Book sales of Bol.com. Bol.com provides, besides of the B2C online business model, selling new books from suppliers to their customers, also a C2C online business model. This gives a customer the opportunity to sell their own books to other customers of Bol.com via Bol.com's website, by simply filling in the ISBN of the book on their second hand book website. The consumer pays a (relatively small) fee to bol.com for each book sold successfully. The payment part is handled by Bol.com, but the shipment has to be done by the customer (seller) itself. This model gives an insight of this process.

Bol.com's Study Book Sales in The Netherlands

Wouter van der Does

*scroll to bottom for user inputs*

FIRE_simulation

v1.0

20200618

A personal finance simulation to predict retirement date.

with some adjustable variables, and some probabilistic variables, you can run a simulation of 500 clones of yourself pre->post FIRE and see how many clones retire at what years.

Some clones get lucky with the market and eg low child costs -> retire early.

Some clones get bad luck and take a few more years to retire!

can also track a clones assets, income, savings rate over time.

Also can use to stress-test (eg poor market returns), and goal seek (assets go to zero when i die. to retire earlier)

Top right are variables about me.

Top left are market variables.

bottom right are simulant/clone (output) info.

Middle 'folder' represents a clone of me.

some vars arent fixed, rather probabilities eg child costs being unknown, i have normally distributed it (my half of costs) around $12k pa and each clone of me gets a random cost on the dist for the simulation. I will add and update in next version

Sign up to insightmaker, click "clone insight" and build/adjust your own modelling. Or send feedback to phillip.balding@gmail.com

programming notes:

-market return years running consecutively not random.

-future years return FIRE rule

-cap_gains and pay_super flows can now be neg

-intro of super still seems too high, grows too much after 60

-rearrange user input variables

To do:

-get actual historical dividends

-goalseek to die with 0 assets -> minimise retirement age.

-year begin not integer?

-auto interpolation seems good.

-tidy the fucking model map mess

-fix child costs at initial random dist.

Clone of FIRE_simulation

Joo Hee Lee

Causal loop diagram illustrating a variety of feedback loops influencing the price of oil.

Clone of Oil Price Influencers (3-Loop)

Pedro Aparicio

Extremely basic stock-flow diagram of compound interest with table and graph output in interest and savings development per year. Initial deposit, interest rate, yearly deposit and withdrawal can all be modified in Dutch.

Stock-Flow diagram of savings account - compound interest

Henny van Dongen

Problemas de Ratios de custos fixos diversos multiprodutos

Clone of prova 2 aluno03 Custos Fixos Ratios Custos

Pagandai V Pannir Selvam

Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka

Finance a spokojenost školáka

Tomáš Novák

Simple causal loop diagram of a simple interest savings account.

Causal loop diagram of savings account - simple interest

Henny van Dongen

3

Simulation of MTBF with controls

F(t) = 1 - e ^ -λt

Where

• F(t) is the probability of failure

• λ is the failure rate in 1/time unit (1/h, for example)

• t is the observed service life (h, for example)

The inverse curve is the trust time
On the right the increase in failures brings its inverse which is loss of trust and move into suspicion and lack of confidence.
This can be seen in strategic social applications with those who put economy before providing the priorities of the basic living infrastructures for all.

This applies to policies and strategic decisions as well as physical equipment.
A) Equipment wears out through friction and preventive maintenance can increase the useful lifetime,
B) Policies/working practices/guidelines have to be updated to reflect changes in the external environment and eventually be replaced when for instance a population rises too large (constitutional changes are required to keep pace with evolution, e.g. the concepts of the ancient Greeks, 3000 years ago, who based their thoughts on a small population cannot be applied in 2013 except where populations can be contained into productive working communities with balanced profit and loss centers to ensure sustainability)

Early Life

If we follow the slope from the leftmost start to where it begins to flatten out this can be considered the first period. The first period is characterized by a decreasing failure rate. It is what occurs during the “early life” of a population of units. The weaker units fail leaving a population that is more rigorous.

Useful Life

The next period is the flat bottom portion of the graph. It is called the “useful life” period. Failures occur more in a random sequence during this time. It is difficult to predict which failure mode will occur, but the rate of failures is predictable. Notice the constant slope.

Wearout

The third period begins at the point where the slope begins to increase and extends to the rightmost end of the graph. This is what happens when units become old and begin to fail at an increasing rate. It is called the “wearout” period.

BATHTUB MEAN TIME BETWEEN FAILURE (MTBF) RISK

Guy Lakeman

8

We are modeling future cash flows in the system consisting of three interacting parties, one of which secures deals between the two others which do not trust each other.

factoring platform on blockchain

Olga Konoval

9

Given historic cash flows, we try to predict the future assuming the main relations between predictors are kept constant

MicroFinance Cashflows prediction

Olga Konoval

First test model of Insight Maker based on YouTube video.

Clone of Test - Bank Interest

Bibhushit Chaudhary

Nastiňuje vlivy financí a školních výsledků na školáka

Finance a spokojenost školáka verze 3

Tomáš Novák

Simulation compares Bitcoin cloud mining opportunity (hashflare.io) to HODL.

The model does not calculate with mining difficulty, pool's efficiency and changes in fees. Using monthly cloud fees as of the end of November 2017.

Used https://www.coinwarz.com/calculators/bitcoin-mining-calculator for mining calculations.

HODL vs. cloud mining

Andrej Soucek

4

FORCED GROWTH GROWTH GOES INTO TURBULENT CHAOTIC DESTRUCTION
BEWARE pushing increased growth blows the system!
(governments are trying to push growth on already unstable systems !)

The existing global capitalistic growth paradigm is totally flawed

The chaotic turbulence is the result of the concept and flawed strategy of infinite bigness this has been the destructive influence on all empires and now shown up by Feigenbaum numbers and Dunbar numbers for neural netwoirks

See Guy Lakeman Bubble Theory for more details on keeping systems within finite limited size working capacity containers (villages communities)

FORCED GROWTH INTO TURBULENCE

Guy Lakeman

5

Clone of Grocery Store System - Stock & Flow Diagram

Emily Judith Arteaga Garcia

Důchodová kalkulačka po reformě, pro narozené mezi lety 1972 a 2005

Autor: Viktor Vojtko (www.viktorvojtko.cz)

Verze je zatím určená k testování, průběžně ji aktualizuji a může obsahovat chyby.

Výsledky při základním nastavení představují vizi hnutí Starostové a nezávislí o tom, jak by se do budoucna měly generovat příjmy v důchodu. Nejedná se tedy ani o investiční radu ani o garanci skutečných příjmů.

České důchody 2.0

Viktor Vojtko

Silvana Calovi

Clone of Soldi in banca (Silvana Calovi)

Rocco Scolozzi

Practicing modelling by building a personal financial model.

financial_simulation_practice

Phillip Balding

Simulating Hyperinflation for 3650 days.

If private bond holdings are going down and the government is running a big deficit then the central bank has to monetize bonds equal to the deficit plus the decrease in private bond holdings. We don't show the details of the central bank buying bonds here, just the net results.

See blog at http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com for more on hyperinflation, including a hyperinflation FAQ.

Clone of Hyperinflation Simulation

Vincent Cate

Rich Diagram For Bank Business Intelligent System

Woubit

A causal loop diagram illustrating a subset of variables influencing business problems related to transitioning and stabilization of MVS.

Inherent in the diagram is a representation of a well-known system dynamics archetype: shifting the burden, represented in the interplay between the B1, B2, and R3 loops.

Variables Influencing MVS Transitioning and Stabilization