Diagram and simulation of disease spread

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As initially proposed by Pr. William M White of Cornell University:

http://www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/education/course/descr/EAS302/302_06Lab11.pdf

http://www.eas.cornell.edu/

Global Carbon Cycle

France Caron

571

Camden Wacha, Joenick Shipley, Joseph Zamudio Torres

Systems Modeling Group Challenge SOS 326 (Colorado River)

Camden Wacha

2 weeks ago

Spring, 2020: in the midst of on-line courses, due to the pandemic of Covid-19.

With the onset of the Covid-19 coronavirus crisis, we focus on SIRD models, which might realistically model the course of the disease.

We start with an SIR model, such as that featured in the MAA model featured in

https://www.maa.org/press/periodicals/loci/joma/the-sir-model-for-spread-of-disease-the-differential-equation-model

Without mortality, with time measured in days, with infection rate 1/2, recovery rate 1/3, and initial infectious population I_0=1.27x10-4, we reproduce their figure

With a death rate of .005 (one two-hundredth of the infected per day), an infectivity rate of 0.5, and a recovery rate of .145 or so (takes about a week to recover), we get some pretty significant losses -- about 3.2% of the total population.

Resources:

Coronavirus: A Simple SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) with death

Andrew E Long

From Jay Forrester 1971 Book World Dynamics, the earlier, simpler version of the World 3 Limits to Growth Model. adapted from Mark Heffernan's ithink version at Systemswiki.

An element of Perspectives: The Foundation of Understanding and Insights for Effective Action. Register at http://www.systemswiki.org/

World2 Model of World Dynamics

Geoff McDonnell

This framework can be used to evaluate the sustainability of a country's debt profile. The dynamics generated are based on the interaction and feedback between a government agent, a rating agency and the financial market in a stock-flow consistent manner.

A Framework to Evaluate the Sustainability of Debt