My model simulates Ukraine's changing population from 2026 to 2126. The population increases through births and immigration, and decreases through deaths, emigration, and conflict. Deaths, immigration, and emigration are determined by their pre-war rates for simplicity. Birth rate is initially at its value during the war to reflect the declining fertility, but increases to an estimated "rebound" rate post-war (assumed to be the year 2030 as conflict is still ongoing). "Conflict" is represented by a static, yearly decline in population from 2026 to 2030 to reflect a combination of civilian/military deaths, increased emigration, decreased immigration, refugee movement, etc. Carrying capacity is an estimate assuming that wartime conditions such as destroyed infrastructure and decreased production will eventually rebound.
